U.S. Session Forex Recap – Apr. 13, 2016

  • U.S. import prices up by 0.2% vs. 1.0% forecast
  • IMF lowered global growth forecast from 3.4% to 3.2%
  • IMF concerned about Greek debt, Brexit
  • Russia and Saudi to agree on oil production cap?

No major reports? No problem! Market junkies turned their attention to oil-related news, still hopeful that an agreement to freeze output will be made.

Major Events:

Oil output freeze agreement? – Citing intel from an unidentified “informed diplomatic source” in Doha, Interfax reported that Russia and Saudi Arabia already reached a deal to freeze output regardless of Iran’s participation. Recall that Saudi Arabia’s energy minister previously insisted that they’re not willing to cap production unless Iran cooperates.

Of course several analysts are still doubtful that this decision has already been finalized, as top oil producers have yet to have their meeting this coming weekend. Even so, WTI crude oil surged 4% to $41.75/barrel and Brent crude oil is up to $44.35/barrel.

Updated IMF outlook The IMF shared its global economic concerns in its latest draft communique, highlighting the risks posed by a potential Brexit and Greece’s unsustainable debt levels. The institution also lowered their global growth forecast from 3.4% to 3.2% this year.

Major Currency Movers:

CAD – The Loonie raked in gains for the third day in a row, getting a boost from reports that an output freeze agreement was already made between Saudi Arabia and Russia.

USD/CAD broke below the 1.2800 handle and reached a low of 1.2740, CAD/JPY popped above the 85.00 handle to 85.20, EUR/CAD is down to 1.4527, and GBP/CAD is testing support at 1.8200.

GBP The British pound was also able to advance against most of its peers, drawing strength from the U.K. CPI readings released in the earlier trading session.

GBP/USD carried on with its climb past the 1.4250 minor psychological mark, GBP/JPY rose to a high of 155.19, EUR/GBP is down to .7970, and GBP/CHF is consolidating above the 1.3600 handle.

Watch Out For:

  • 12:50 am GMT: Japanese PPI (-3.5% expected, -3.4% previous)
  • Tentative: Chinese trade balance (203B CNY expected, 210B CNY previous)
  • 1:30 am GMT: Australia Westpac consumer sentiment (-2.2% previous)

See also:

Asian Session Recap

London Session Recap

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