U.S. Session Forex Recap – Mar. 31, 2016

  • ADP non-farm employment up by 200K vs. 195K forecast in Mar
  • ADP jobs figure downgraded from 214K to 205K in Feb
  • U.S. crude oil inventories up by 2.3 million barrels vs. 3.1 million forecast
  • Canada’s raw materials price index down by 2.6% vs. projected 0.8% drop
  • Canadian industrial product price index down by 1.1% vs. estimated 0.2% dip

The U.S. dollar made a rebound against its forex counterparts, boosted in part by slightly stronger than expected ADP jobs data.

Major Events:

ADP jobs report – With a little over a day to go before the actual non-farm payrolls release, forex traders are looking closely at leading jobs indicators for some clues on how the U.S. jobs report might turn out. The ADP report came in slightly above expectations with its 200K gain for March, outpacing the consensus at 195K.

However, it’s also worth noting that the previous report suffered a downgrade from the initially reported 214K increase to just 205K, indicating that the NFP might also see negative revisions in its earlier releases.

U.S. oil inventories report – Crude oil stockpiles rose less than forecast in the U.S. as the latest report from the EIA showed an increase of 2.4 million barrels in inventories versus the projected gain of 3.1 million barrels. This is also significantly lower than the earlier buildup of 9.4 million barrels, somewhat easing fears of an oversupply.

WTI crude oil popped up to a high of $39.80/barrel and Brent crude oil advanced to a high of $40.53/barrel upon seeing the report, but the commodity gave back its gains when a Reuters survey revealed that OPEC’s March output rose by 100K barrels per day.

Major Currency Movers:

USD – The U.S. dollar enjoyed another round of forex volatility in the past few hours, profiting from positive expectations for the NFP.

USD/JPY bounced from found support around 112.35 and rallied to a high of 112.67, USD/CHF recovered to the .9650 minor psychological mark, EUR/USD retreated from a high of 1.1364 to the 1.1325 area, and GBP/USD is down to 1.4360.

CAD – The Loonie got a boost from the early rally in crude oil and was able to hold on to most of its forex wins even with the reversal in the commodity’s gains.

USD/CAD broke below the 1.3000 handle once more and reached a low of 1.1293, CAD/JPY popped up to a high of 87.12 after previously consolidating below 86.00, EUR/CAD is testing support at the 1.4700 mark, and GBP/CAD dipped to a low of 1.8620.

Watch Out For:

  • 12:00 am GMT: Australia HIA new home sales (0.6% previous)
  • 12:00 am GMT: New Zealand NZ business confidence (7.1 previous)
  • 12:30 am GMT: Australia private sector credit (0.5% expected, 0.5% previous)
  • 5:00 am GMT: Japanese housing starts y/y (-2.2% expected, +0.2% previous)

See also:

Asian Session Recap

London Session Recap

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