U.S. Session Forex Recap – Mar. 1, 2016

  • Canadian current account deficit at 15.4B CAD vs. 16.8B CAD forecast
  • Chicago PMI down from 55.6 to 47.6 vs. 52.1 estimate
  • U.S. pending home sales slumped 2.5% in Jan vs. projected 0.6% gain
  • Australia’s AIG manufacturing index rose from 51.5 to 53.5
  • Japanese household spending down by 3.1% vs. estimated 2.5% drop
  • Japan’s jobless rate improved from 3.3% to 3.2%
  • Japanese capital spending up by 8.5% in Q4 vs. 8.8% forecast

Dollar pairs were all over the place as country-specific data came into play and commodity currencies were in the mood for forex consolidation.

Major Events:

Downbeat U.S. economic data – You win some, you lose some. After printing stronger than expected reports in the past couple of days, the U.S. economy churned out another batch of bleak figures.

The Chicago PMI fell from 55.6 to 47.6 to indicate industry contraction, worse than the estimated drop to 52.1 in February. Meanwhile, pending home sales in the U.S. slumped 2.5% in January versus the projected 0.6% increase.

Canadian reports show upside surprise – On the other hand, data from Canada was mostly stronger than expected, with the current account balance holding steady at a deficit of 15.4 billion CAD instead of widening to the estimated 16.8 billion CAD shortfall.

Leading inflation indicators also beat expectations. The raw materials price index showed a smaller than expected 0.4% dip instead of the estimated 3.2% decline, chalking up a small rebound from the previous 5.2% drop. The industrial product price index yielded a 0.5% gain, outpacing the consensus of a 0.1% uptick.

Major Currency Movers:

EUR – The euro continued its slump from the earlier trading session, as forex junkies cast their bets for additional ECB easing.

EUR/USD fell to a low of 1.0859 before bouncing higher, EUR/JPY tumbled all the way down to its previous week low of 122.47, EUR/GBP retreated to the .7800 major psychological support, EUR/CAD broke below 1.4700 to reach a low of 1.4680, and EUR/AUD tested support around 1.5175 again.

GBP –  Interestingly enough, the British pound bounced off its latest lows and showed a bit of a recovery during the U.S. session.

GBP/USD climbed from a low of 1.3835 to land back above the 1.3900 mark, GBP/JPY held steady around the 157.15 area, GBP/CAD bounced to a high of 1.8896, and GBP/NZD pulled up to a high of 2.1158.

Watch Out For:

  • 12:30 am GMT: Australian building approvals (-2.9% expected, +8.6% previous)
  • 12:30 am GMT: Australian current account balance
  • 1:00 am GMT: Chinese official manufacturing PMI (no change from 49.4 expected)
  • 1:00 am GMT: Chinese official non-manu PMI (53.5 previous)
  • 1:45 am GMT: Chinese Caixin manu PMI (no change from 48.4 expected)
  • 2:00 am GMT: Japanese final manu PMI (no change from 50.2 expected)
  • 3:00 am GMT: RBA interest rate decision (Read Forex Gump’s Trading Guide right here!)

See also:

Asian Session Recap

London Session Recap

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