U.S. Session Forex Recap – Dec. 1, 2015

  • Canadian current account deficit narrowed from 16.6B CAD to 16.2B CAD
  • Chicago PMI fell from 56.2 to 48.7 vs. 54.3 forecast
  • U.S. pending home sales up 0.2% vs. 1.6% forecast
  • IMF granted reserve currency status to the Chinese yuan

The U.S. dollar chalked up a mixed forex performance for Cyber Monday, as it advanced to the euro and yen but gave up ground to the pound, franc, and commodity currencies.

Major Events:

Bleak U.S. data – Uncle Sam took a step back from the usual string of upbeat data to print a couple of disappointing reports today. The Chicago PMI posted a surprise decline from 56.2 to 48.7 in November to indicate industry contraction instead of rising to the projected 54.3 reading. Meanwhile, pending home sales weren’t so impressive as a meager 0.2% uptick was seen versus the estimated 1.6% gain.

Positioning ahead of Chinese PMI, OPEC meeting – Forex junkies seem to be too excited to cast their bets ahead of comdoll-related events this week, most notably the release of the Chinese PMI readings for November and the OPEC meeting later on. By the looks of it, traders are counting on upbeat results, allowing the commodity currencies to rally against lower-yielding rivals.

As Forex Gump noted in his preview of the 5 Major Catalysts for AUD this week, small improvements are expected for both the official and Caixin versions of the Chinese PMI readings. Also, the IMF’s approval of the reserve currency status for the Chinese yuan also appears to be taken positively by the Aussie.

Major Currency Movers:

JPY – Yen pairs continued to race up the forex charts, following BOJ Governor Kuroda’s earlier testimony indicating that no further stimulus is necessary to ward off inflation.

USD/JPY popped above the 123.00 handle to a high of 123.33 (+0.26%), GBP/JPY is up 87 pips to 185.42 (+0.48%), AUD/JPY is up 81 pips to 89.11 (+0.92%), but EUR/JPY is flat at the 130.00 handle.

NZD – The Kiwi was one of the biggest winners for the session, although there doesn’t seem to be any major catalyst spurring the rally. Positive expectations ahead of the GDT auction, perhaps?

NZD/USD is up 63 pips to .6588 (+0.97%), NZD/JPY is up 93 pips to 81.11 (+1.14%), EUR/NZD is down 163 pips to 1.6040 (-1.00%), GBP/NZD is down 127 pips to 2.2863 (-0.55%), and AUD/NZD is down 14 pips to 1.0985 (-0.11%).

Watch Out For:

  • Australian building approvals and current account balance at 1:30 am GMT
  • Chinese official manu PMI at 2:00 am GMT (49.9 expected, 49.8 previous)
  • Chinese official non-manu PMI at 2:00 am GMT (53.1 previous)
  • Chinese Caixin manu PMI at 2:45 am GMT (48.3 expected, 48.3 previous)
  • Chinese Caixin services PMI at 2:45 am GMT (53.1 expected, 52.0 previous)
  • RBA interest rate statement at 4:30 am GMT

See more:

Asian Session Recap

London Session Recap

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