U.S. Session Forex Recap – Nov. 26, 2015

  • U.S. headline durable goods orders up 3.0% in Oct vs. 1.6% forecast
  • U.S. core durable goods orders up by 0.5% in Oct as expected
  • U.S. initial jobless claims down from 272K to 260K last week
  • U.S. Oct core PCE price index fell flat vs. 0.2% previous, 0.1% forecast
  • U.S. personal spending up 0.1%, personal income up 0.4%
  • U.S. Nov UoM consumer sentiment index downgraded from 93.1 to 91.3
  • New Zealand trade deficit narrowed from 1.14B NZD to 0.96B NZD
  • Crude oil inventories up from 0.3M to 1M barrels

Mixed data, mixed performance! The U.S. dollar was all over the place in today’s New York forex session, as it functioned mostly as a counter currency and reacted to country-specific events.

Major Events:

Mixed U.S. data – Another day of greens and reds for Uncle Sam, as hits and misses were seen in terms of economic data. The October headline durable goods orders report printed an impressive 3.0% gain versus the projected 1.6% increase but the core version of the report simply came in line with expectations of a 0.5% uptick. Initial jobless claims came in better than expected, as the reading fell from 272K the other week to 260K last week.

Moving on, the core PCE price index or the Fed’s preferred inflation measure fell flat in October instead of printing a 0.1% increase. Personal spending rose 0.1% while personal income picked up by 0.4%. Lastly, the November UoM consumer sentiment index was downgraded from 93.1 to 91.3 to reflect weaker optimism than initially reported.

ECB policy decision leak? – An exclusive article by Reuters revealed that ECB officials are considering various policy options for monetary easing in their December meeting. Nothing we haven’t heard about or speculated on before, but what’s interesting is that the officials interviewed actually gave much more deets.

“It could be combined with a ceiling, so that from a certain point onwards liquidity can only be parked overnight at a stronger rate,” said one of the sources who preferred to stay anonymous. “Whether and how to shape a deposit rate cut in December is in discussion.”

Major Currency Movers:

EUR – The euro faced another round of losses after the Reuters article on ECB easing details hit the airwaves, but the shared currency made a quick bounce before the end of the U.S. session.

EUR/USD dipped to a low of 1.5652 and is back to the 1.5600 level, EUR/JPY fell to a low of 129.75 then landed 30 pips above 130.00, and EUR/GBP came close to testing the major support at .7000 before recovering to .7018.

USD – The Greenback tossed and turned against its forex peers, ending higher against the European currencies but giving up a bit more ground to the commodity currencies.

USD/JPY climbed close to the 123.00 handle from an intraday low of 122.23, USD/CHF climbed to a new high of 1.0259, USD/CAD continued to test support at the 1.3300 handle, and AUD/USD dipped to a low of .7228 before bouncing back to .7252.

Watch Out For:

  • Australian quarterly capital expenditure (-4.0% previous, -2.8% expected)

See more:

Asian Session Recap

London Session Recap

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