U.S. Session Forex Recap – Nov. 20, 2015

  • U.S. Philly Fed manu index up from -4.5 to +1.9 vs. 0.1 forecast
  • U.S. initial jobless claims at 271K vs. 272K forecast, 274K previous
  • U.S. CB leading index up by 0.6% in Oct
  • Canadian wholesale sales down 0.1% vs. projected 0.2% gain
  • SNB Gov Board member Maechler: Negative rates appropriate
  • FOMC member Lockhart: Rate hike path may be “slow and halting”

It wasn’t such a good day to be a dollar bull, as the Greenback gave up more ground to its forex peers despite strong data. What’s up with that?

Major Events:

Strong U.S. data – Medium-tier economic figures came in stronger than expected, led by the Philly Fed manufacturing index which climbed from -4.5 to +1.9 to indicate a return to industry expansion. Initial jobless claims landed at 271K versus the 272K forecast, lower than the previous 274K figure. Lastly, the CB leading index posted a 0.6% gain for October while the earlier reading enjoyed a small upgrade.

FOMC members testimonies – Since the minutes of the latest FOMC meeting were already released, forex junkies barely reacted to the testimonies of Fed officials today. According to FOMC member Lockhart, a rate hike in December might be announced but that the path of future tightening moves would be “slow and halting.”

Weak Canadian wholesale sales – Canada printed a weaker than expected wholesale sales report, showing a 0.1% decline instead of the projected 0.2% uptick. This might set the stage for a weaker than expected retail sales release in today’s New York trading session, which explains why the Loonie returned some of its recent forex wins.

Major Currency Movers:

USD – The Greenback chalked up back-to-back losing days, as forex traders started unwinding their long dollar positions on speculations of a slow Fed tightening cycle.

USD/JPY is down 75 pips to 122.88 (-0.60%), EUR/USD is up 73 pips to 1.0732 (+0.69%), GBP/USD is up 53 pips to 1.5289 (+0.35%), and USD/CHF is down 63 pips to 1.0133 (-0.62%).

CAD – The Canadian currency was unable to sustain its climb when the oil price rally faded and data from the Great White North fell short of expectations.

USD/CAD bounced off support at the 1.3250 minor psychological level and is up 10 pips to 1.3300 (+0.11%), CAD/JPY is down 50 pips to 92.41 (-0.54%), EUR/CAD is up 90 pips to 1.4268 (+0.64%), and GBP/CAD is up 61 pips to 2.0327 (+0.30%).

Watch Out For:

  • Chinese CB leading index at 3:00 am GMT (1.6% previous)
  • New Zealand credit card spending data at 3:00 am GMT (7.3% previous)

See more:

Asian Session Recap

London Session Recap

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