U.S. Session Forex Recap – Oct. 16, 2015

  • U.S. headline CPI down by 0.2% in Sept as expected, -0.1% previous
  • U.S. core CPI up by 0.2% vs. projected 0.1% uptick
  • U.S. initial jobless claims at 255K, lower than 269K forecast
  • Empire State manufacturing index up from -14.7 to -11.4 vs. -7.3 consensus
  • Philly Fed index up from -6.0 to -4.5 vs. -1.8 consensus
  • U.S. crude oil inventories up from 3.1M to 7.6M barrels
  • New Zealand quarterly CPI up by 0.3% vs. 0.2% forecast, 0.4% previous
  • BOJ Gov Kuroda’s speech coming up

Look at the Greenback bringing sexy back! U.S. economic reports weren’t as bad as expected, allowing the U.S. currency to regain ground against its forex peers.

Market watchers had actually been bracing themselves for weaker than expected CPI readings, as the PPI figures released earlier this week fell short of expectations. However, the headline CPI came in line with estimates of a 0.2% drop while the core CPI showed a stronger than expected 0.2% gain versus the projected 0.1% uptick. Initial jobless claims were also better than expected, as the report indicated a 255K figure, lower than the 269K forecast.

Manufacturing data from Philly and the concrete jungle where dreams are made of showed a bit of improvement, but the actual readings came up short of consensus. The Empire State manufacturing index rose from -14.7 to -11.4, still a few points away from the projected -7.3 figure, while the Philly Fed index climbed from -6.0 to -4.5, lower than the estimated -1.8 reading. Still, both indices reflected a slower pace of contraction in the industry.

USD/JPY jumped back above the 119.00 handle and is up 32 pips (+0.28%), EUR/USD is down 19 pips to 1.1367 (-0.16%) and USD/CHF is up 18 pips to .9517 (+0.18%).

The U.S. dollar was unable to sustain its lead against the commodity currencies, though, even as the crude oil inventories indicated a rise in stockpiles from 3.1 million barrels to 7.6 million barrels. USD/CAD fell to a low of 1.2831 before bouncing back (-0.07%), AUD/USD is trying to stay above the .7300 support level (+0.09%), and NZD/USD popped up to a high of .6885 (+0.11%), thanks to stronger than expected quarterly inflation data from New Zealand.

There are no major reports up for release in today’s Asian trading session, but yen pairs might be in for additional forex volatility since BOJ Governor Kuroda has a speech lined up. Keep your eyes and ears peeled for any dovish hints, as data from Japan has been mostly weak recently and expectations for further easing from the Japanese central bank are running high. Good luck!

See also:

London Session Recap

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