U.S. Session Forex Recap – August 14, 2015

  • US retail sales: 0.6% as expected vs. 0.0% previous
  • US core retail sales: 0.4% as expected and previous
  • US initial jobless claims: 274K vs. 270K expected, 269K previous
  • US import prices: -0.9% vs. -1.2% expected, -0.1% previous
  • US business inventories: 0.8% vs. 0.3% expected and previous
  • CA new house price index: 0.3% vs. 0.1% expected, 0.2% previous
  • NZ quarterly retail sales numbers on tap

The dollar’s forex price action was a mixed bag of beans despite a better-than-expected U.S. retail sales report. What’s up with that?!

The biggest story of the hour was Uncle Sam printing its retail sales numbers. The headline figure rose by 0.6% in July while figures for May and June were both revised higher. The report not only hinted at a strong economic activity in Q3 2015, but also supports early tightening by the Fed.

Unfortunately for the Greenback, some forex bears just aren’t ready to completely give up their hold. The dollar might have gained a couple of pips against currencies like the pound and Loonie, but it also lost some against the euro, Aussie, yen, and franc. Possible reasons include optimism that China might be done devaluing the yuan for now and Greece’s third bailout deal possibly getting approved by the Greek Parliament this week.

EUR/USD hit an intraday low of 1.1081 before capping the session 36 pips higher (+0.32%) than its open price while USD/CHF slid by 12 pips (-0.12%) to .9754. Meanwhile, the tug-o-pips resulted in tight trading for GBP/USD and USD/JPY as they both stayed just above or below their session open prices.

Comdoll trading was also mixed despite the decline in commodity prices. A slight recovery in the dollar and the easing of fears over China’s devaluation curbed demand for safe-haven bets like gold. The precious metal dropped by 1% yesterday and snapped a five-trading-session winning streak.

Oil prices didn’t fare much better as it received a one-two punch of reports that added to global oversupply fears. U.S. crude oil prices fell by 2.5% to $42.23 per barrel, its lowest since March 2009, while Brent crude oil also slipped by 60 cents to $49.60 per barrel.

AUD/USD still managed to edge 26 pips higher (+0.35%) to .7368 while USD/CAD unsurprisingly rose by 58 pips (+0.45%) to 1.3065. NZD/USD remained mostly unchanged around the .6570 area, possibly because Kiwi traders are on hold until New Zealand’s quarterly retail sales numbers are released.

If you’ve read Forex Gump’s trading guide, then you should know that market players are expecting a 0.5% uptick for Q2 2015 after showing a 2.7% increase in Q1 2015. Meanwhile, the core figure is expected to show only a 0.7% gain after last quarter’s 2.9% increase.

Quarterly reports tend to have strong impact on its currency, so you might want to pay close attention to this one. Any significant hits or misses could affect the Kiwi’s intraday trends, so best stay vigilant if you have any Kiwi trades open!

Asian session forex traders don’t have other news reports to look forward to save for RBA Assistant Governor Christopher Kent giving a speech at 2:15 am GMT. No fireworks are expected from the central banker so stay glued to the tube for other news that might affect forex price action.

Good luck!

See also:

London Session Recap

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