U.S. Session Forex Recap – August 10, 2015

  • US NFP: 215K vs. 225K expected, 231K previous
  • US unemployment rate: remains at 5.3% as expected
  • US average hourly earnings: 0.2% as expected vs. 0.0% previous
  • US consumer credit: 20.7B USD vs. 17B USD expected, 165B USD previous
  • CA building permits: 14.8% vs. 5.0% expected, -13.9% previous
  • CA unemployment rate remains at 6.8% as expected
  • CA adds a net of 6.6K jobs in July vs. 5K addition expected, 6.4K net loss in June
  • CA IVEY PMI: 52.9 vs. 51.5 expected, 55.9 previous
  • China’s inflation rises by 1.6% vs. 1.5% uptick expected, 1.4% growth previous
  • BOJ monthly report, Japan’s data dump on tap

If you were looking to buy the dollar last Friday, then the post-NFP action must’ve been disappointing for you as the latest Fantastic Four movie was to… well, everyone.

The biggest story of the day was the U.S. non-farm payrolls (NFP) report, which missed its headline expectations of 225K with a 215K reading. Surprisingly, forex traders (and algos) who were probably ready with their buy triggers dragged the dollar higher across the board anyway.

A second look at the report inspired a sharp U-turn among the majors though. For one thing, a miss in the NFP report does not bode well for the Fed, which recently noted that it’s looking at labor market improvements for the timing of its next interest rate hike.

Luckily, the Greenback didn’t take too many hits. Possible explanations include June’s numbers being revised higher; the unemployment rate remaining at 5.3%, and the average hourly earnings exceeding market expectations with a 0.2% growth against last month’s stagnation.

EUR/USD dropped to an intraday low of 1.0856 before finishing the session 25 pips higher (+0.23%) to 1.0959. USD/JPY also popped up to 125.07 before settling down 47 pips lower (-0.38%) to 124.22 and USD/CHF tipped up to .9884 before settling back to .9843.

The comdolls were also on the dollar-selling bandwagon despite the decline in gold prices and milk payout forecasts. AUD/USD hit an intraday low of .7334 before capping the session with a 20-pip gain (+0.27%) to .7407 while NZD/USD recovered from its .6531 low to end the session with a 40-pip gain to .6616.

Let’s see if today’s Asian session forex traders are as hungry for dollar-selling as their U.S. counterparts. Watch out for possible continuation, retracement, or reversal of last Friday’s moves especially with China’s inflation numbers printed over the weekend.

Japan is also set to dump a couple of reports on the market including the BOJ’s monthly report, bank lending data, current account numbers, and consumer confidence reads. These reports don’t usually cause sustained impact on the yen pairs, but keep an eye out in case they affect risk appetite anyway!

See also:

London Session Recap

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