U.S. Session Forex Recap – July 15, 2015

  • US retail sales: -0.3% vs. 0.3% growth expected, 1.0% growth previous
  • US core retail sales: -0.1% vs. 0.5% growth expected, 0.8% growth previous
  • US import prices: -0.1% vs. 0.1% uptick expected, 1.2% growth previous
  • US business inventories: 0.3% as expected vs. 0.4% previous
  • AU Westpac consumer confidence, new motor vehicle sales on tap
  • Chinese data dump ahead

Major currency pairs were all over the charts, as forex traders priced in weak U.S. data and a bit of risk aversion.

The dollar started the U.S. trading session on a weak note after Uncle Sam’s retail sales numbers missed market expectations. The headline number printed a 0.3% decline when analysts had been expecting a 0.3% uptick while the core figure, which excludes volatile items such as oil prices, also fell by 0.1%.

Luckily for the dollar bulls, slight risk aversion dominated the rest of the trading session and provided them the opportunity to hustle some muscle. Greece remained in focus as a lack of a debt deal extended market uncertainty. Oil was also under the spotlight though oil prices managed to end the day almost unchanged after news of Iran possibly receiving fewer sanctions hit the markets.

USD/JPY fell to an intraday low of 122.92 before closing at 123.37 while EUR/USD, which spiked to 1.1082, fell back down to 1.1005 at the end of the day. Even USD/CHF slipped to a low of .9405 before ending the day at .9453.

The pound was also in focus as it continued its climb across the board. If you recall, BOE Governor Mark Carney had hinted at a rate hike by saying that “the point at which interest rates may begin to rise is moving closer.” Then, later in the day Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member David Miles said that the “time to start normalization is soon.” Now that’s hawkishness!

GBP/USD popped up by another 60 pips (+0.39%) to 1.5636, GBP/JPY rocketed by another 80 pips (+0.42%) to 192.90, and EUR/GBP slipped by 43 pips (-0.61%) to .7038.

Another currency under the spotlight was the Loonie, which gained a few pips against its counterparts despite the slip in oil prices. One possible reason is that some Loonie bears have squared their positions ahead of the BOC’s interest rate decision today. The central bank is expected to cut its rates from 0.75% to 0.50%.

Will we see more comdoll gains today? Asian session forex traders have a lot on their plate today with Australia printing its Westpac consumer confidence report along with a new motor vehicle sales release while China has a data dump which includes China’s retail sales, industrial production, and fixed asset investment numbers. Some market players are saying that China isn’t likely to allow bad news to mar the recent recovery in the Chinese equities market, so keep an eye out for possible strong releases from the major reports.

Good luck!

See also:

London Session Recap

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