U.S. Session Forex Recap – July 1, 2015

  • CA GDP: -0.1% vs. 0.1% expected in April, -0.2% in March
  • US S&P Case-Schiller home price index: 4.9% vs. 50.0% expected, 46.2% previous
  • US Chicago PMI: 49.4 vs. 50.0 expected, 46.2 previous
  • US consumer confidence: 101.4 vs. 97.4 expected, 94.6 previous
  • Fitch downgrades Greece’s credit rating from CCC to CC
  • IMF: Greece now “in arrears” after failing to pay debt by the deadline

The dollar gained pips across the board as forex traders priced in slightly better-than-expected reports from the U.S. and a bit of risk aversion. How did the other major currencies trade?

While the world waited for the creditors’ verdict on Greece’s debt deadline, other traders focused on economic reports, risk appetite, and end-of-month flows. The dollar got a few pips in against its counterparts thanks to a bit of demand in U.S. equities and better-than-expected data from Uncle Sam.

Yesterday’s data revealed that an improvement in the jobs sector boosted consumer confidence while the Chicago PMI, missing the 50.0 mark, still managed to inch higher than its previous reading. It also didn’t hurt the dollar that traders who were at the edge of their seats over Greece’s debt problems took off some of their high-yielding bets on the table.

EUR/USD ended the trading session 50 pips lower (-0.45%) at 1.1115 while GBP/USD also slid by 8 pips (-0.05%) to 1.5713. USD/JPY also found support at the 122.00 psychological area before closing at 122.40 while USD/CHF jumped by 36 pips (+0.39%) to .9349.

The Aussie and Kiwi bulls put up a fight despite the small slide in gold prices. AUD/USD inched 29 pips higher (+0.38%) to .7715 while NZD/USD also went up by 19 pips (+0.28%) to .6776.

The Loonie wasn’t as lucky though, as it fell across the board even though oil prices ended the day higher than its open price. We don’t have to look far for the reason. Canada’s monthly GDP missed its expectations and showed a 0.1% decline when others had been expecting a 0.1% uptick. The miss isn’t usually significant but this time around it fuelled rumors that the Bank of Canada isn’t done with its rate cuts just yet.

USD/CAD jumped by 106 pips (+0.86%) to 1.2490 while CAD/JPY dropped by 95 pips (-0.96%) to 97.99.

Will we see more dollar gains today? Japan has fired the first salvo of economic reports with its Tankan manufacturing and non-manufacturing indices, both of which printed better-than-expected results. Ditto for China’s manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs. They not only printed above the 50.0 expansionary mark, but also exceeded market expectations. With Greece’s debt drama extended for a couple more days, watch out for forex junkies who would turn to economic reports for direction!

See also:

London Session Recap

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