U.S. Session Forex Recap – May 11, 2015

  • US NFP: 223K vs. 228K expected, 85K previous
  • US unemployment rate falls from 5.5% to 5.4%
  • US labor participation rate up from 62.7% to 62.8%
  • US average hourly earnings: 0.1% vs. expected and downwardly revised 0.2% growth
  • US wholesale inventories: 0.1% vs. 0.3% expected, 0.2% previous
  • CA housing starts: 182K as expected vs. 190K previous
  • CA unemployment rate still at 6.8% vs. uptick to 6.9% expected
  • CA employment change: -19.7K vs. -5K expected, 28.7K previous
  • U.S. stocks soar on NFP, Fed rate hike expectations
  • Australia NAB business confidence out today

NFP? More like NFPfft. Forex price action was pretty muted thanks to the “monster report” just missing investor expectations.

Last Friday the closely-watched NFP report came in at 223K, which was just below the 224K figure that market players had been looking for. Other jobs-related reports were mixed with unemployment rate falling and labor participation rate inching higher while the previous readings of the average hourly earnings was revised lower.

Unfortunately for volatility hunters, the numbers were just enough to reassure investors that Uncle Sam isn’t slowing down, but they’re also not enough to encourage the Fed to raise its rates sooner than later this year. In fact, U.S. equities traders seemed to get more volatility out of the release with DJIA rising by 1.49% to 18,191 while S&P 500 rose by 1.35% to 2,116 and NASDAQ shot up by 1.17% to 5,003.

EUR/USD jumped to a session high of 1.1288 before overall EUR weakness set in and dragged it to its 1.1208 closing price. Ditto for GBP/USD, which also reacted to the news before traders paid more attention to the pound’s price action. USD/JPY also lost 45 pips (-37.4%) to 119.72.

Similar moves were seen across major comdoll friends with AUD/USD popping up to an intraday high of .7968 before closing at .7930 while NZD/USD soared to a high of .7901 before closing at .7480. Meanwhile, USD/CHF fell to a session low of .9203 before it succumbed to overall franc weakness on the back of a little jawboning from SNB head honcho Jordan.

The Loonie’s price action was mixed thanks to mixed employment numbers from Canada. While the unemployment rate remained at 6.8%, a net of 19,700 workers had lost jobs last month. Still, a closer look at the report reveals that the losses were mostly from part-time work.

This is probably why USD/CAD was all over the place with a session low at 1.2047and a high at 1.2146 before closing at 1.2088 while CAD/JPY dropped by 51 pips to 98.67 in the first two hours before popping back up to 99.03. The Loonie was also mixed against the European currencies with its 35-pip gain (+26%) against the euro and its 122-pip loss (-66%) against the pound.

The pound also recovered logged in serious pips against its counterparts Prime Minister David Cameron’s Conservative Party won the latest U.K. elections. Incumbent wins usually means more consistent policies in the short-term.

GBP/USD rose by 57 pips (+0.31%) to 1.5457 while EUR/GBP fell by 24 pips (-0.33%) to .7252.

Let’s see if we’ll get more volatility from Asian session forex traders. Australia is set to print its business confidence report at 2:30 am GMT. The report is unlikely to have a sustained impact on the Aussie or the comdolls, but keep an eye out in case there are any surprises and we see movement among major currencies.

Good luck and good trading!

See also:

London Session Recap

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