U.S. Session Forex Recap – Oct. 1, 2014

  • CA GDP: 0.0% vs. 0.2% expected, 0.3% previous
  • CA raw materials price index: -2.2% vs. -1.5% expected, -1.4% previous
  • US S&P house price index: 6.7% vs. 7.4% expected, 8.1% previous
  • US Chicago PMI: 60.5 vs. 62.0 expected, 64.3 previous
  • US CB consumer confidence: 86.0 vs. 92.5 expected, 93.4 previous
  • Chinese markets out on National Day holiday

Forex price action was a happy mess during the last trading session of the quarter, as investors priced in different economic reports.

Greenback bulls lost intraday momentum during the US session after Uncle Sam printed weak reports. First, the Chicago PMI fell to 60.5 on slowing business activity. Then, S&P’s house price index showed slower growth in July, a trend that S&P thinks is consistent with the rest of Uncle Sam’s housing indicators. Lastly, CB consumer confidence fell to 60.5 after hitting highs not seen since October 2007 last month.

EUR/USD rose by 42 pips to 1.2631, GBP/USD inched 3 pips higher to 1.6214, USD/JPY slipped by 16 pips to 109.67, and USD/CHF fell by 36 pips to .9547.

A one-two punch of bearish reports also weighed on the Loonie and put it on the spotlight yesterday. Oil prices fell to a 10-year low on dollar strength, end-of-quarter flows, and a report that OPEC’s oil production has reached a two-year high. Then, Bank of Canada’s Deputy Governor Cote joined the bears’ party when he said that Canada is still at risk from a sharp housing correction.

USD/CAD popped up by 65 pips to 1.1199, EUR/CAD jumped by 60 pips to 1.4146, AUD/CAD rose by 69 pips to .9805, and CAD/JPY dropped by 35 pips to 97.93. Yikes!

Today’s Asian forex trading session looks promising for comdoll bulls and bears with China’s manufacturing PMI on tap at 1:00 am GMT, followed by Australia’s retail sales numbers at 1:30 am GMT. Analysts are expecting the reports to maintain its numbers from last month (51.0 for China’s manufacturing, 0.4% growth for AU’s retail sales), but stick around in case we see surprises that might move the major currencies.

Good luck!

See also:

London Session Recap

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