London Session Forex Recap – Oct. 28, 2016

  • French GDP (Prelim q/q): 0.2% vs. 0.3% forecast, -0.1% previous
  • French PPI m/m: 0.1% vs. 0.0% previous
  • French Consumer Spending m/m: -0.2% vs. 0.3% forecast, 0.8% previous
  • French Flash HICP m/m: 0.1% vs. 0.2% forecast, -0.2% previous
  • Swiss KOF leading indicator m/m: 104.7 vs. 101.8 forecast, 101.6 previous
  • European Consumer Sentiment: -8 vs. -8 forecast/previous
  • European Business Climate Index: 0.55 vs. 0.45 forecast, 0.44 previous
  • European Industrial Sentiment: -0.6 vs. -1.6 forecast, -1.8 previous
  • German HICP m/m (Prelim): 0.2% vs. 0.1% forecast, 0.0% previous

Heavy economic data day in Europe lifts the euro and a high court ruling in the U.K. pushes Sterling lower in the morning London session.

Major Events/Reports:

Lots of European data – It was a flood of European economic data in the morning London session, and it was a continuation of the positive news we’ve seen all week from the combined economic zone.

The highlights from today’s data dump that’s likely supporting the euro’s rally this morning was probably the positive surprises in German inflation and broad sentiment indicators rose for both the Euro area and the European Union.  There were a few disappoints in today’s data, including a dip in French inflation data, but overall, today’s data provided another strong argument for improving conditions across Europe.

Brexit Challenges Rejected – No love for Sterling this morning, likely on the news that the challenge against Brexit was rejected by the High Court in Belfast.  They cited no legal precedents from the 1998 Good Friday peace agreement to prevent Article 50 from triggering, supporting current sentiment that the U.K. is still on course for a Brexit, an event that former Prime Minister Tony Blair has commented that citizens may be having second thoughts on because of the economic challenges it will likely bring.

Mixed price action  – Positive European data didn’t translate to love in the equity markets like it did the euro:

  • The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 was down by 0.29% to 1,346.83
  • The blue-chip Euro Stoxx 50 was down by 0.20% to 3,078.82
  • The U.K.’s FTSE 100 was up 0.20% to 7,000.57
  • The DAX was down by 0.18% to 10,697.27

While in the U.S., sentiment is rising ahead of a potentially positive U.S. GDP report & a heavy session of U.S. Corporate earnings

  • S&P 500 futures was up by 0.19% to 2,127.50
  • Nasdaq futures was up by 0.18% to 4,815.50

Oil dipping lower – Oil is feeling a bit of pressure as OPEC officials meet to implement its commitment to cut supplies, which there are still doubts over whether it will get done.

  • U.S. WTI crude oil was down by 0.52% to $49.46 per barrel.
  • Brent blend crude oil was down by 0.28% to $50.33 per barrel.

Major Market Movers:

GBP – broadly lower after the High Court rejection of the Brexit challenge

GBP/USD was down 22 pips (-0.19%) to 1.2138, GBP/JPY was down 8 pips (-0.08%) to 127.91, GBP/CAD was down 25 pips (-0.15%) to 1.6253

EUR – still making moves higher thanks to today’s cornucopia of positive economic data

EUR/USD was up 25 pips (+0.24%) to 1.0918, EUR/JPY was up 36 pips (+0.32%) to 115.06, EUR/AUD was up 74 pips (+0.52%) to 1.4425

NZD – no direct catalyst cited move, but we see strong momentum to the upside

NZD/USD was up 21 pips (+0.30%) to .7141, NZD/JPY was up 31 pips (+0.41%) to 75.26, GBP/NZD was down 72 pips (-0.41%) to 1.7002

Watch Out For:

  • 12:30 pm GMT: U.S. Core PCE Price Index (1st Est.) (1.6% forecast, 1.8% previous)
  • 12:30 pm GMT: U.S. GDP Annualized (1st Est.) (2.6% forecast, 1.4% previous)
  • 12:30 pm GMT: U.S. GDP Price Index (1st Est.) (1.4% forecast, 2.3% previous)
  • 14:00 pm GMT: U.S. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (final) (88.2 forecast, 87.9 previous)

See also:

Asian Session Forex Recap

U.S. Session Recap

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