London Session Forex Recap – August 11, 2015

  • German Wholesale Price Index m/m: 0.1% actual v.s. 0.0% expected, -0.2% previous
  • Euro Zone ZEW Economic Sentiment: 25.0 actual v.s. 31.9 expected, 29.7 previous
  • Euro Zone ZEW Current Conditions: 65.7 actual v.s. 64.2 expected, 63.9 previous
  • U.S. NFIB Small Business Index: 95.4 as expected v.s. 94.1 previous

Price action was rather choppy during today’s morning London forex session with most currency pairs first moving this way then that way, but the euro knew exactly where it was going – up.

After staying in the background for a while, Greece was finally back in the spotlight, thanks to news that a bailout deal between Greece and its creditors has finally been hammered out. The Greek drama is not over yet, though, since the bailout deal has to pass through the Greek parliament first, and it apparently has some rather painful reforms in store. But that’s a story for another time. For now, it’s time for euro bulls to celebrate.

EUR/USD is up by 75 pips (+0.69%) to 21.1041, EUR/JPY is up by 87 pips (+0.64%) to 137.88, EUR/CHF is up by 83 pips (+0.77%) to 1.0861

The pound was mostly up too, although there weren’t any direct catalysts for the show of strength. It’s possible that currency correlation between the strong euro and the pound was in play since the pound also jumped higher when news about the Greek deal first began to circulate. The pound quickly found some sellers after the initial jump, though, probably because the FTSE 100 was down by 0.90% to 6,675.80 while yields on U.K. 10-year bonds contracted by 3.17% to 1.863% during the forex session.

GBP/USD is up by 38 pips (+0.24%) to 1.5595, GBP/CAD is up by 48 pips (+0.24%) to 2.0366, GBP/CHF is up by 47 pips (+0.32%) to 1.5339

As for other currencies worth noting, we have the Aussie and the Kiwi. Both commodity currencies were able to find enough buyers during the forex session to stop the bleeding caused by China’s surprise devaluation of the yuan.

For the newbie forex traders out there, both Australia and New Zealand rely heavily on exporting commodities to China in order to sustain their economic growth. And since China devalued its domestic currency, it means that commodity exports from New Zealand and Australia would no longer be as competitive, which is most likely why forex traders dumped the Aussie and Kiwi since the two currencies have to depreciate in order for exports from their respective economies to remain competitive.

AUD/USD is up by 6 pips (+0.09%) to 0.7322, AUD/CHF is up by 12 pips (+0.18%) to 0.7202

NZD/USD is up by 8 pips (+0.12%) to 0.6551, NZD/JPY is up by 7 pips (+0.09%) to 81.82

The forex calendar for the upcoming afternoon London/morning U.S. session has a lot of low and mid-tier items in store. Let’s go through them shall we?

At 1:15 pm GMT, we’ll get the data for Canada’s housing starts (195.0K expected v.s. 203.1K previous). It is expected to decline, which means fewer residential buildings began construction, so keep an eye on how the Loonie may react.

Shortly after that, at 1:30 pm GMT, forex traders will get the preliminary readings for U.S. non-farm productivity (1.6% expected, -3.1% previous) and unit labor costs (0.0% expected, 6.7% previous). The two economic indicators are at odds with each other, but forex traders would probably be focusing on the preliminary reading for unit labor costs since it is directly tied to future inflation levels, and hence, the future direction of monetary policy. Do not that it’s expected to decline, though.

Next, at 2:30 pm GMT, we’ll get the U.K. CB leading index (-0.4% previous). This indicator is a composite of previously released data, so it very rarely moves the market, but it’s still good to know that it’s coming out.

Finally, at 3:00 pm GMT, the reading for U.S. wholesale inventories (0.4% expected, 0.8% previous) will be released. This is a leading indicator for business productivity and consumer spending, so it may move the markets. Also, take note that it is expected to decrease, which is a good thing since it means a higher inventory turn-over. Stay frosty!

See also:

Asia Session Recap

U.S. Session Recap

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