London Session Forex Recap – Mar. 2, 2015

  • U.K. Nationwide House Prices: -0.1% vs. 0.4% forecast, 0.3% previous
  • Swiss Manufacturing PMI: 47.3 vs. 46.9 forecast, 48.2 previous
  • German Manufacturing PMI: 51.1 vs. 50.9 previous
  • European Manufacturing PMI: 51 vs. 51.1 forecast/previous
  • U.K. Manufacturing PMI: 54.1 vs. 53.3 forecast, 53.1 previous
  • U.K. Net Consumer Credit: 0.8B GBP vs. 0.9B GBP forecast, 0.6B GBP previous
  • U.K. Mortgage Approvals: 60.8 vs. 61 forecast, 60.3 previous
  • European HICP: -0.3% vs. -0.6% previous
  • European Unemployment Rate: 11.2% vs. 11.4% forecast, 11.3% previous

The euro is on a broad tear higher in the morning London session, likely due to the better-than-expected reads in inflation data and the unemployment rate ticking lower. Overall, it was a good set of data points from Europe, or at the very least not as bad as it has been in recent past. It looks like forex traders are pricing it into the euro as if we are finally seeing a turn around in the euro zone with the shared currency showing strong momentum going into the U.S. trading session:

EUR/USD is up 37 pips (+0.33%) to 1.1226, EUR/JPY is up 112 pips (+0.77%) to 134.46, EUR/GBP is up 46 pips (+0.65%) to .7296

The British pound is not feeling the love in morning London trade after weaker-than-expected consumer data (credit, lending, and mortgage approvals) are all down for February. Sterling pairs were on the upswing during Asia trade, but have given back the gains, and then some, heading into the afternoon London session:

GBP/USD is down 37 pips (-0.24%) to 1.5392, GBP/JPY is down 25 pips (-0.14%) to 184.32, and GBP/CAD is down 84 pips (-0.42%) to 1.9209

The forex calendar for the Monday afternoon London/morning U.S. session is pretty stacked itself, but with mostly low-to-mid tier data from the U.S. and Canada

At 1:30 pm GMT, we’ll get the current account data from Canada (-12.5B CAD forecast vs. -8.4B CAD previous), and from the U.S. we’ll see the core PCE price index (0.1% forecast vs. 0.0% previous), as well as personal income (0.4% forecast vs. 0.3% previous) and spending (-0.1% forecast vs. -0.3% previous) data. Again, these are not usually market movers, but I think the core PCE price index number is likely to give the Greenback a boost in volatility since it is the preferred measure of inflation by the Federal Reserve.

We’ll then close out the session with more U.S. data, starting at 2:45 pm GMT with U.S. manufacturing PMI (54.3 forecast vs. 54.3 previous), then construction spending (0.3% vs. and ISM manufacturing PMI (53 forecast vs. 53.5 previous) at 3:00 pm GMT. The ISM manufacturing PMI number tends to be the mover of the bunch, so be on the lookout to see if this number continues the trend lower since hitting topping out around 59 in November. Stay frosty!

See also:

Asia Session Recap

U.S. Session Recap

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