London Session Forex Recap – Feb. 19, 2015

  • Swiss Trade Balance: 3.43B CHF vs. 1.2B CHF forecast, 1.51B CHF previous
  • French CPI m/m: -1.0% vs. -1.0% forecast, 0.1% previous
  • European Current Account: 17.8B EUR vs. 19.9B EUR previous
  • U.K. CBI Industrial Trends: 10% bal vs. 6% bal forecast, 4% bal previous
  • ECB meeting minutes released; members split on QE but seen as only option

Sentiment quickly turned to the downside for the euro starting with weaker current account data and French CPI showing weaker trade conditions and continued falling prices. And more euro bears came out to play after the first ever release of the European Central Bank meeting minutes, showing that while there were dissenters to quantitative easing, it seemed like it was the only option to battle deflation and weakening economy.

We also had fresh news that Germany rejected Greece’s request for “bridge financing” today, citing that it was “not a substantial proposal for a solution.” With weaker economic data, ECB fears of deflation and slow growth, and continued uncertainty with the Greece situation, it’s no wonder the euro fell after rallying throughout the Asia session. After nearly hitting 1.1450, EUR/USD is back below 1.1400, trading around 1.1381; EUR/GBP was as high as .7405 before dropping to .7360 on today’s euro events.

And it looks like British pound strength continued in the Thursday trading session, leading up to the better-than-expected CBI trend orders data, which measures the expectations of manufacturing executives in the U.K. Despite the positive read, it looks like the stalled with that release with Sterling starting to give up some gains going into U.S. trade:

GBP/USD is down 22 pips (-0.15%) to 1.5414, GBP/CHF is up 72 pips (+0.50%) to 1.4612, and GBP/JPY is up 14 pips (+0.07%) to 183.46

The forex calendar for the Thursday afternoon London/morning U.S. session is void of major scheduled events, but filled with mid-tier events from the U.S. to hopefully keep currency price action going.

At 1:30 pm GMT, we’ll get the weekly U.S. initial jobless claims data (290K forecast vs. 304K previous) and then finish the session at 3:00 pm GMT with European flash consumer sentiment (-7.5 forecast vs. -8.5 previous) and the Philadelphia Fed survey (9 vs. 6.3). The Philly Fed survey is the likely market mover of the group and with an expectation showing that forecasters see positive growth and employment, we could see more positive Dollar moves on the session. Stay frosty!

See also:

Asia Session Recap

U.S. Session Recap

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