London Session Forex Recap – Nov. 28, 2014

  • German Retail Sales m/m: 1.9% vs 1.5% forecast, -2.8% previous
  • U.K. Nationwide House Prices m/m: 0.3% vs. 0.3% forecast, 0.5% previous
  • French CPI m/m: -0.9% vs. 0.3% forecast, -0.5% previous; PPI m/m -0.2 vs. 0.0% forecast, 0.6% previous
  • Swiss KOF Leading Indicator: 98.7 vs. 100 forecast, 99.5 previous
  • European Flash HICP y/y: 0.3% vs. 0.3% forecast, 0.4% previous
  • European Unemployment Rate inline with 11.5% forecast/previous reads.

European data was in abundance in the morning London session, but the results were mixed as we saw lower inflation reads from across Europe, but a positive read from German retail sales. Forex traders may have been focused on the positive German retail sales data, but it could also have been the decision by OPEC to keep their oil output as-is yesterday that’s boosting a little bit of bullish sentiment to the countries that use a lot of oil.  The fall in oil prices can be seen as a positive stimulus to an economy as consumers spend less on energy products and services, and potentially have more to spend on other parts of the economy. Overall, the euro went into bull mode right from the London open with momentum still strong for the shared currency:

EUR/USD is up 17 pips (+0.14%) to 1.2483, EUR/JPY is up 97 pips (+0.66%) to 147.65, and EUR/GBP is up 30 pips (+0.38%) to .7950

Overall, price action is pretty mixed among the major currencies, but one other move of note is that the weak sentiment in the Japanese yen seems to have picked up once again.  Despite some positive CPI and unemployment data from Japan during the Asia session, it looks like yen selling has returned, most likely on the cut from the OPEC decision potentially weakening oil and providing a stimulus effect to all economies.

USD/JPY is up 63 pips (+0.54%) to 118.28, GBP/JPY is up 52 pips (+0.28%) to 185.71, and AUD/JPY is up 28 pips (+0.28%) to 100.80

The forex calendar for the Friday afternoon London/morning U.S. session, and final trading session of November, is light but potential volatile for a currency that’s been on the move thanks to the OPEC decision yesterday: the Canadian dollar.

At 1:30 pm GMT, we’ll get a basket of Canadian data points including the raw materials and industrial product price index numbers, and most notably the monthly read on GDP. The forecast show a potential dip in the price index numbers but a potential tick higher to the GDP number (2.1% forecast vs. 3.6% previous).  This could create a lot of volatility for the Loonie, which has taken a hit since the OPEC meeting because of Canada’s large oil export industry. Stay frosty!

See also:

Asia Session Recap

U.S. Session Recap

Bonnie and Clyde, peanut butter and jelly, Justin Bieber and his hair. Some things just go well together. In forex trading, you get better odds at securing pips when your fundamental analysis is complemented by technical analysis. Head on to Big Pippin’s Daily Chart Art for some pip-locking technical setups!

  • ForExchange

    Hi PipDiddy,

    I always read all your posts, and I think today based on what you wrote, the technicals have right when they say: “No matter how currencies move, fundamentlists find the explanation for it.” 🙂

    I think it fits perfect today. You used the OPEC decision to explain all currencies. It is obvious for CAD I would say, but I am not sure for JPY and EUR. You say EUR is strong because it uses oil and it means more money to buy products. On the other side you say JPY is weak because of less oil price and they need more stimulus. Well if EUR would go down and JPY would go up probably you would have written: EUR weakens because of falling oil prices and the need for stimulus and JPY gets stronger because the cheaper oil means more money to spend.

    I do not think there is such a clear explanation. Both economies are struggling and in both cases stimulus might happen. So we should come to the same conclusion. And the reaction is still different? We do not have to explain it with fundamentals. This is the forex market and that is the way it is.

    Have a nice weekend,
    FE