London Session Forex Recap – Nov. 25, 2014

  • German GDP (final) q/q: 0.1% vs. 0.1% forecast, previous
  • French INSEE Manufacturing Confidence survey: 99 vs. 97 forecast, 98 previous
  • U.K. BBA Mortgage Approvals: 37.08K vs. 38.5K forecast, 39.13K previous

The main movers for the morning London session came from the Aussie and Kiwi, both taking hits starting in Asia trade and continuing into Europe.  There were no direct economic catalysts, but we did get comments from RBA Deputy Governor Philip Lowe who stated that the currency is “unusually high” and that the Australian economy “clearly has some challenges ahead.” Industrial metals (a big componet of Australia’s economy) are also taking a hit; iron ore’s slump (falling 48% this year) could be adding fuel to the Aussie selloff, which could be taking the Kiwi down with it because of their close relationship.

AUD/USD is down 81 pips (-0.95%) to .8532, AUD/JPY is down 118 pips (-1.17%) to 100.68, and AUD/CAD is down 104 pips (-1.06%) to .9615

The Canadian dollar is the only other currency move of note during the morning London session.  After taking a hit during Asia trade, the Loonie picking up bullish steam ahead of a potential turn around in Canadian retail sales data, as well as last week’s surprise strength in Canada’s CPI data:

USD/CAD is down 12 pips (-0.11%) to 1.1264, EUR/CAD is down 33 pips (-0.24%) to 1.3997, and GBP/CAD is down 54 pips (-0.31%) to 1.7658

The forex calendar for the Tuesday afternoon London/morning U.S. session is actually looking pretty active as we’ll get mid to top tier data from both the U.S. and Canada.

At 1:30 pm GMT, we’ll get Canadian retail sales  (headline forecast at 0.5% vs. -0.3% previous) and the second estimate on the U.S. quarterly GDP numbers (3.3% forecast vs. 3.5% previous).  Both have the potential to be market movers for their country’s respective currencies, so you definitely want to stay on your toes during this hour.

At 2:00 pm GMT, we’ll get a read on the U.S. housing sector with the monthly FHFA House Price index (0.4% forecast vs. 0.5% previous) and the year-over-year read on the S&P Case-Shiller Home price index (4.6%forecast vs. 5.57% previous).

And at 3:00 GMT, we’ll get the latest read on U.S. consumer confidence (96 forecast vs. 94.5 previous). Both the housing and consumer confidence data usually aren’t sentiment changers without a big surprise, so we may see the morning trends and early morning U.S. GDP and Canadian retail sales data drive the ship until the U.S. session close.  Stay frosty!

See also:

Asia Session Recap

U.S. Session Recap

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