London Session Recap – Sept. 12, 2014

  • German Wholesale Price Index m/m: -0.2% vs. 0.1% previous
  • U.K. Construction Output lower m/m: 0.0% vs. 0.6% forecast, 1.2% previous
  • European Employment q/q ticks up: 0.2% vs. 0.1%
  • European Industrial Production m/m improves: 1.0% vs. 0.7% forecast, -0.3% previous

Price action continues to be choppy with every new poll on the Scottish referendum that is released.  Today, it looks like voters against Scotland leaving the U.K. took the lead, sparking a bit of a short-lived gain for Sterling as we see weaker-than-expected U.K. construction data.  So far, pound price action is mixed on the session, mostly up but struggling against the euro and the Greenback:

GBP/USD is down 21 pips (-0.13%) to 1.6231, EUR/GBP is up 15 pips (+0.2%) to .7964, and GBP/AUD is up 64 pips (+0.36%) to 1.7923

The euro is up on the session after seeing positive broad employment and industrial production data, even against the U.S. Dollar which is currently on a massive run higher (EUR/USD is up 8 pips to 1.2929).  And the comdolls continue to take a beating, possibly on weaker Chinese data, but mainly on a strong U.S. Dollar ahead of what could be a pivotal week in U.S. monetary policy.

AUD/USD is down 41 pips (-0.46%) to .9055, USD/CAD is up 27 pips (+0.25%) to 1.1060, and NZD/USD is down 16 pips (-0.20%) to .8166

The forex calendar for the final afternoon London/morning U.S. session of the week is filled with U.S data that will most likely help forex traders grab a few more pips ahead of the weekend.

At 1:30 pm GMT, we’ll get U.S. import price index data and retail sales data.  Retail sales is likely to be the event with the most bang for the rest of the session, with the headline number expected to come in around 0.6% vs. 0.0% previous and the core at around 0.3% vs. 0.1% previous.  These numbers have been on a slight downtrend since the spring, so we’ll see if it’ll be another disappointment or a break in trend.

At 2:55 pm GMT we’ll get the University of Michigan sentiment data (prelim.) read (83.3 forecast vs. 82.5) and at 3:00 pm GMT, U.S. business inventories data will closeout the data for the week (0.4% forecast/previous).  Both are mid-tier events that will mostly likely only have an impact with a big deviation from either the expectations or previous reads.  But let’s remember that it’s the end of the week, so this data may have a bigger affect than normal as London closes and traders square away positions.  Stay frosty!

See also:

Asia Session Recap

U.S. Session Recap

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