London Session Recap – July 9, 2014

  • U.K. Halifax HPI weaker-than-expected: -0.6% vs. -0.3% forecast, 4.0% previous

Volatility was pretty tame during the morning London session, but there was price action of note, mainly in the Loonie and Sterling.

First, Sterling took a mild hit this morning thanks to another weak economic read in the form of house price inflation.  After printing 4.0% last time, the number turned weak to come in below even the low expectations.

GBP/USD is down 23 pips (-0.14%) to 1.7105, EUR/GBP is up 12 pips (+0.15%) to .7950, and GBP/CHF is down 11 pips (-0.08%) to 1.5282

Loonie seems to be on a tear within the last hour.  Not sure what the catalyst is, but the comdolls are taking a turn for the better with the Canadian Dollar leading the way.

CAD/JPY is up 25 pips (+0.25%) to 95.34, CAD/CHF is up 15 pips (+0.18%) to .8376, and the “big” mover of the session is GBP/CAD, down 51 pips (-0.28%) to 1.8237

The forex calendar for the afternoon U.K./morning U.S. trading session is extremely light, but with slight potential for big volatility.

First, we’ll see Canadian data in the form of their housing starts number, forecasted to come in at 190K new starts vs. 198.3K previous.  This is a second tier event, so it’s only likely to affect the Loonie IF there is a big deviation from the forecast/previous numbers.

The event with big volatility potential is the release of the FOMC meeting minutes at 7:00 pm GMT.  Now, the likelihood that we’ll see anything different from recent monetary policy rhetoric from Fed officials is very low, but if there is a hidden gem to surprise the market, the reaction could be big.

And finally, a quick heads up to major economic data early in the Asia session in the form of Australian Jobs data (read our forex guide on this event).  At 2:30 am GMT, we’re forecasted to get a better-than-previous net change at 12K vs. -4.8K, but possibly a tick higher in the unemployment rate from 5.8% to 5.9%.  This is a big mover for the Aussie so be prepared!

See also:

Asia Session Recap

U.S. Session Recap

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