London Session Recap – June 25, 2014

  • German GFK Consumer Sentiment slightly higher: 8.9 vs. 8.6 forecast, 8.6 previous
  • French INSEE Business Confidence index ticks lower: 98 vs. 99 forecast/previous
  • Swiss UBS Consumption Indicator:  1.77  vs. 1.72 previous
  • U.K. CBI Distributive Trades weaker:  4 vs. 23 forecast, 16 previous

It looks like Kiwi and Sterling traders have yet to get into the summer mindset as those were the only two currencies on the move during the morning London session.

It could have been that forex traders were anticipating weaker-than-expected U.K. trade data (or Carney’s surprisingly dovish comments yesterday) because Sterling was in sell mode throughout the Asia session before bottoming out at the London open.  The reaction to the CBI Distributive Trades data was a bullish one for the British Pound (possible buy-the-rumor, sell-the-news scenario?), bringing the currency back up to near breakeven in most pound pairs.

GBP/USD is down 12 pips (-0.7%) to 1.6971, EUR/GBP is up 7 pips (+0.10%) to .8016, and GBP/JPY is down only 17 pips (-0.10%) to 172.95

The other currency on the move was the Kiwi, with no apparent direct catalyst for its bullish move that kicked off at the London open.  It’s the biggest mover on the session among the majors:

NZD/USD is up 26 pips (+0.30%) to .8695, NZD/JPY is up 25 pips (+0.26%) to 88.61, and the big mover on the session is NZD/CHF, currently up 26 pips (+0.34%) to .7775

We’ve got another potentially active afternoon London and U.S. trading session thanks to a couple of top tier U.S. events on today’s calendar.

At 1:30 pm GMT, in which we’ll get the final read on first quarter U.S. GDP and the durable goods orders number. Since the GDP number doesn’t usually change much by the third read it’s not typically a market mover, so the durable goods data will likely be the market mover during this hour.  That is, of course, IF we don’t see any big deviations from the forecast or previous numbers.  For both data points, it looks like the expectations are for weaker-than-previous reads, so be ready to act or react with any Dollar positions you may be watching over.

Risk sentiment seems to be negative for today with Asia and European equities in the red, so the safe havens like the Greenback and Yen will be ones to watch for possible strength. And keep an eye on NZD and GBP, especially into the London close for potential profit taking after some nice directional moves. Stay frosty!

See also:

Asia Session Recap

U.S. Session Recap

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