London Session Recap – January 7, 2014

  • German Retail Sales release better-than-previous reads: +1.5% vs. -0.8% m/m,  +1.6% vs. -0.1% y/y; German Unemployment change better-than-expected at -15K vs. -1K forecast. 
  • European PPI reads higher-than-expected at -1.2% vs. -1.3% y/y, but Harmonized index of consumer prices reads lower on both headline and core: +0.8% vs. +0.9% headline and +0.7% vs. 0.8%.
  • North American Trade Balance data just released: -34.3B vs. -40.0B forecast in the U.S., -0.94B vs. -0.1B forecast in Canada.

Pretty quiet price action during the morning London session, but we did get a bit of movement thanks to mostly positive European data.  Germany posted better-than-expected retail sales and employment data, and inflation on producer goods ticked higher.  Consumer inflation, however, read a bit lower.  We saw EUR/USD rallying as high as 38 pips above the London session open at around 1.3619.

The other mover of the day is the Australian dollar after Australia reported in the early Asia session a better-than-expected trade balance number of -118M vs. -300M forecast.  While better-than-expected, the value of trade between their biggest trading partner China has fallen, sparking the current pressure on the Aussie.  AUD/USD is 37 pips lower from the event release.

We also just got the trade balance numbers from the U.S. and Canada.  With the U.S. posting a positive read vs. the negative read from Canada, we’re seeing a logical pop higher in value for the USD/CAD pair, up 22 pips since the release, and may continue to support the pair for the rest of the session.

For the rest of the session, we have the Canadian Ivey PMI report due at 3:00pm GMT (10:00 am ET).  Expectations are for December to be higher than November, which may limit the USD/CAD rally or be supportive of it if it’s a miss.

See also:

Asian Session Recap

U.S. Session Recap

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