Asian Session Forex Recap – Mar. 31, 2015

  • Australia HIA New Home Sales m/m: 1.1% vs. 1.8%
  • New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence Index: 35.8 vs. 34.4 previous
  • Australia Private Sector Credit m/m: 0.5% vs. 0.5% forecast, 0.6% previous
  • New Zealand Monetary Aggregates M3 y/y: 6.6% vs. 6.2% previous
  • Japanese Housing Starts y/y: -3.1% vs. -7.0% forecast, -13.0% previous
  • Japanese Construction Orders y/y: +1.0% vs. +27.5% previous

Aussie bears came out to play today after disappointing reads from both the Australian monthly new home sales and private sector credit today. These aren’t major economic events, but with there being broad speculation the RBA may cut again, weaker data does add fuel to the fire. AUD/USD took a small dive after the data, falling from .7660 to .7620, but currently trading around .7634.

The Kiwi is marginally higher after the ANZ business confidence index ticks higher to show the business sector in New Zealand is still improving and that business owners still have a positive outlook. It is mostly choppy sideways action against the majors, but it seems to be holding its own against some of the stronger currencies like Greenback.  NZD/USD is down only 9 pips (-0.13%) to .7480 after hitting Tuesday highs around .7510.

The big mover in Asia is the rally in the Japanese yen, likely on the big improvement in the housing starts data, as well as the positive (but weaker) construction orders data from Japan. While still giving us negative reads, the big gap improvement between the previous, forecast and actual reads in the housing number was a really big surprise, and seems to be fueling Japanese yen bulls to take action today. AUD/JPY is down 18 pips (-0.20%) to 91.70 after seeing highs around 92.00, and NZD/JPY is down 16 pips (-0.20%) to 89.81 after hitting session highs around 90.25

For the upcoming London session,  the forex calendar is heavy once again, but the main economic data points to watch are likely the U.K. current account data (-£22B forecast vs. -£27B previous) and final read on GDP (0.5% q/q forecast/previous) at 8:30 am GMT, and the European Flash HICP data (-0.1% forecast vs. -0.3% previous) at 9:00 pm GMT for another read on inflation conditions in the euro zone. Volatility should pick up nicely for both the euro and the pound, especially if we see new developments in what seems to be the never-ending Greek debt negotiations story.

U.S. Session Recap

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