Cowabunga System Daily Update: 03/21/07

If this is your first time visiting this blog, read this first!

Main Trend

Current Trend= The trend remained up the entire day.

Today I only looked for long trades.

Today’s Surf

11:15 am ET – There was a moving average crossover for a long trade. RSI was greater than 50, stochastics were trending up, and MACD was negative and gaining value. This was a valid entry. The entry was at the close of the candle which was at 9589 with a stop at the most recent swing low which was 9568. Since I was only 11 pips away from the nearest 00 level I decided to go for the same amount of pips I was risking, which in this case was 21. This put my target at 9610.

2:00 pm ET - My target is not hit and I know that the interest rate statement is about to come out so I decide to cut my losses and exit my trade. I exited at 9583.

Trade Result: -6 pips; R-Multiple= -0.28

Even though this trade would’ve worked into my favor if I had held onto it, the big news events such as can go either way and it basically becomes a coin flip. Now keep in mind, the risk was relatively small on this one. It was only 21 pips. So I can understand if you decided just to hold onto this and just hope for the best. For learning purposes however, I will strictly stick to my rules and since I said I would always exit before interest rate statements and NFP reports, I held true to my words and got out of the trade :) Thankfully it was only a small loss.

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8 comments

  1. pazdpips

    Hi.
    I noticed that you placed your trade 11 pips away from a 00 level – but you were after 21 pips. Seeing as the market was so close to the 00, which I have read can be a psychological point of either resistance or support, would it be better for a newbie to hold off on a trade so close to this level as a general rule? Or in your experience, does the market generally still “pip thru” this level to test it up to a point?
    Thanks

    Reply
  2. pinetree

    PS, we got to sort this out. Your histogram is different than mine — it was not so when BP was moderating. This difference is making it a bit difficult to follow your entries. Is your macd set at the standard 12, 26, 9 — or is it different and if so what numbers are you using -thanks.

    Reply
  3. pazdpips

    Hi.
    I noticed that you placed your trade 11 pips away from a 00 level – but you were after 21 pips. Seeing as the market was so close to the 00, which I have read can be a psychological point of either resistance or support, would it be better for a newbie to hold off on a trade so close to this level as a general rule? Or in your experience, does the market generally still “pip thru” this level to test it up to a point?
    Thanks

    Reply
  4. pinetree

    PS, we got to sort this out. Your histogram is different than mine — it was not so when BP was moderating. This difference is making it a bit difficult to follow your entries. Is your macd set at the standard 12, 26, 9 — or is it different and if so what numbers are you using -thanks.

    Reply
  5. Makiaveli

    Hi, first of all this site and this system is awsome!! Thanks for the good work! Now to my question. How do you act if you miss a valid entry signal, but you see the trend is still in progess? Would you recommend a later entry?

    Reply
  6. Makiaveli

    Hi, first of all this site and this system is awsome!! Thanks for the good work! Now to my question. How do you act if you miss a valid entry signal, but you see the trend is still in progess? Would you recommend a later entry?

    Reply
  7. Pip Surferpipsurfer

    pazdpips- what you can do is trail your stop when price does reach a 00 or 50 level (possibly breakeven) and then try to go for your actual target. That way you can’t lose on the trade and still have the potential to hit your target.

    Pinetree- My MACD settings are exactly the same as BPs. There were people saying they had discrepancies and I figured out why. See the FAQ page and you might have your answer.

    Makiaveli- Seeing as this isn’t the only system I trade, I don’t really worry about missing a signal. However, if you are late and can get in at a better price then I don’t see why you shouldn’t enter. For example if you missed a long signal, if the price retraces back you can enter at a better price because your risk will be smaller and your profit will be greater. On the flipside if you missed a long signal and the price has already moved up, you shouldn’t enter because your risk is greater and your reward is smaller. Hope that helps.

    Reply
  8. Pip Surferpipsurfer

    pazdpips- what you can do is trail your stop when price does reach a 00 or 50 level (possibly breakeven) and then try to go for your actual target. That way you can’t lose on the trade and still have the potential to hit your target.

    Pinetree- My MACD settings are exactly the same as BPs. There were people saying they had discrepancies and I figured out why. See the FAQ page and you might have your answer.

    Makiaveli- Seeing as this isn’t the only system I trade, I don’t really worry about missing a signal. However, if you are late and can get in at a better price then I don’t see why you shouldn’t enter. For example if you missed a long signal, if the price retraces back you can enter at a better price because your risk will be smaller and your profit will be greater. On the flipside if you missed a long signal and the price has already moved up, you shouldn’t enter because your risk is greater and your reward is smaller. Hope that helps.

    Reply

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