Cowabunga System Daily Update: Thursday, 05/28/09

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Main Trend

Current Trend

The trend stayed up until 8am EST. From Midnight – 8am EST a new trend change candle formed. It took the span of two candles for the new trend to be confirmed. The trend change candle changed the trend from up to DOWN. After 8am EST, the trend remained down the rest of the day.

Today I only looked for long trades until 8am EST. After that, I only looked for short trades.

News events to watch for today :

  • 6:00am EST- UK CBI Realized Sales
  • 8:30am EST- US Core Durable Goods Orders m/m; Unemployment Claims
  • 10:00am EST- US New Home Sales

Today’s Surf

1:30am EST- There was a moving average crossover for a long trade. RSI was greater than 50, stochastics were trending up, but MACD was already positive. This cancelled the signal and I did not enter.

4:00am EST- There was a moving average crossover for a long trade. RSI was greater than 50, stochastics were trending up, but MACD was already positive. This cancelled the signal and I did not enter.

entry2

Trade Result: +0 pips R-Multiple: N/A

News events to watch for tomorrow:

  • 8:30am EST- US Prelim GDP q/q

For a complete list of news events check out our Forex Economic Calendar.
Questions? Read the Cowabunga FAQ.

Want to discuss the Cowabunga System? Visit our Forex Forums.

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14 comments

  1. sintax77

    Hey pipsurfer. Kudos for the system, I’ve really been enjoying trading it so far. My question regards risk management. Do you adjust your position size for each trade so that you are risking a fixed dollar amount, or does your actual dollar risk vary depending on the stop distance each time? I have been using variable position sizes myself, but didn’t know if this would be detrimental to the system’s long term success.

    Reply
  2. dazza2

    Pipsurfer thanks for the daily updates they are a real help. Can you confirm when you check the values of the indicators? Do you check them at the EMA crossover or at the close of the crossover candle? Im in the UK so 5 hours ahead of EST this means our 4H candles do not match as the charting software starts the 4H candles at midnight (so your 00:00 to 04:00 candle is inside my 04:00 to 08:00 and 08:00 to 12:00 candles). This means the close of my 4H candles are 1 hour in front of yours so the indicator readings are different and Ive been getting different signals.

    I guess this should be OK as long as Im clear on the time to check indicators.? Could you confirm please.

    Thanks again.

    Reply
  3. lsjopted

    Hello Pipsurfer.
    I see some folks are having problems with chart time zones, matching dates and daylight saving changes etc around the world.
    The perfect sight to visit is time and date.com were you can customize a print out.
    All the best Laurie.

    Reply
  4. sintax77

    Hey pipsurfer. Kudos for the system, I’ve really been enjoying trading it so far. My question regards risk management. Do you adjust your position size for each trade so that you are risking a fixed dollar amount, or does your actual dollar risk vary depending on the stop distance each time? I have been using variable position sizes myself, but didn’t know if this would be detrimental to the system’s long term success.

    Reply
  5. dazza2

    Pipsurfer thanks for the daily updates they are a real help. Can you confirm when you check the values of the indicators? Do you check them at the EMA crossover or at the close of the crossover candle? Im in the UK so 5 hours ahead of EST this means our 4H candles do not match as the charting software starts the 4H candles at midnight (so your 00:00 to 04:00 candle is inside my 04:00 to 08:00 and 08:00 to 12:00 candles). This means the close of my 4H candles are 1 hour in front of yours so the indicator readings are different and Ive been getting different signals.

    I guess this should be OK as long as Im clear on the time to check indicators.? Could you confirm please.

    Thanks again.

    Reply
  6. lsjopted

    Hello Pipsurfer.
    I see some folks are having problems with chart time zones, matching dates and daylight saving changes etc around the world.
    The perfect sight to visit is time and date.com were you can customize a print out.
    All the best Laurie.

    Reply
  7. Revone

    Pretty sure the Trend Change Candles are a feature with X-Tick Charting. Not sure what other Charting Software has this feature, it’s very cool, but you don’t need it to trade this system, simply watch for confirmed cross overs manually, very easy.

    As far as Time Zones, I think Traders need to learn more about Time Zones, you should be able to accurately identify time, and if you can’t, there are Market Hour Clocks online where you can input your Time Zone and see the Session overlaps. And as far as what to follow, well, you follow your Broker’s time.

    GBP/USD caught a nice up trend early last Friday, but you wouldn’t of caught the cross-over unless you were waiting well before 12:00 EST. Big gains.

    Sintax77: Risk Management is specific to each trader. I would imagine if his Stop Loss is quite large based on the last High, his Lot size would be adjusted (smaller) accordingly so he’s not risking more than his maximum, that I would imagine is 1-2% of his account, maybe 3% max. If the stop loss is much closer, he may risk more lots/units for that trade, as the risk amount is the same, because your risk is based on your stop, or the $/% amount your willing to risk per trade.

    Ex: If you have a 20 point stop loss, then 20 points is your risk. And if you have a 40 point take profit, then 40 points is your reward. In this case, your reward to risk is 2:1.

    If you have a $1,000 account and have your stop loss at $20, then that is a 2% risk of your account. But you can have different position sizes. You could have 1 unit with a 20 point stop loss ($20 Risk) or you could have 4 units with a 5 point stop loss ($20 Risk). The risk is the same.

    Always figure in the amount your willing to risk per trade and never go beyond your maximum amount your willing to risk. Always figure in your reward to risk ratio. I can’t stress this enough, you will simply blow your account with this system, or any system, if you do not manage your risk before entering a trade. Has nothing to do with the system, Risk Management is the BASICS of keeping an account afloat. And this is a big reason why Traders blow accounts. You can’t just fluctuate your risk, especially if your account isn’t compounding, and even if your account is compounding, I still wouldn’t risk any more than 3%. Stick to 1-2% and you’ll be good. If Cowabunga gives you a huge stop loss at a trade signal, then adjust your lot size accordingly so your RISKING an amount your comfortable with based on your account size and your management. Otherwise, you will blow your account.

    Good Day.

    Reply
  8. Revone

    Pretty sure the Trend Change Candles are a feature with X-Tick Charting. Not sure what other Charting Software has this feature, it’s very cool, but you don’t need it to trade this system, simply watch for confirmed cross overs manually, very easy.

    As far as Time Zones, I think Traders need to learn more about Time Zones, you should be able to accurately identify time, and if you can’t, there are Market Hour Clocks online where you can input your Time Zone and see the Session overlaps. And as far as what to follow, well, you follow your Broker’s time.

    GBP/USD caught a nice up trend early last Friday, but you wouldn’t of caught the cross-over unless you were waiting well before 12:00 EST. Big gains.

    Sintax77: Risk Management is specific to each trader. I would imagine if his Stop Loss is quite large based on the last High, his Lot size would be adjusted (smaller) accordingly so he’s not risking more than his maximum, that I would imagine is 1-2% of his account, maybe 3% max. If the stop loss is much closer, he may risk more lots/units for that trade, as the risk amount is the same, because your risk is based on your stop, or the $/% amount your willing to risk per trade.

    Ex: If you have a 20 point stop loss, then 20 points is your risk. And if you have a 40 point take profit, then 40 points is your reward. In this case, your reward to risk is 2:1.

    If you have a $1,000 account and have your stop loss at $20, then that is a 2% risk of your account. But you can have different position sizes. You could have 1 unit with a 20 point stop loss ($20 Risk) or you could have 4 units with a 5 point stop loss ($20 Risk). The risk is the same.

    Always figure in the amount your willing to risk per trade and never go beyond your maximum amount your willing to risk. Always figure in your reward to risk ratio. I can’t stress this enough, you will simply blow your account with this system, or any system, if you do not manage your risk before entering a trade. Has nothing to do with the system, Risk Management is the BASICS of keeping an account afloat. And this is a big reason why Traders blow accounts. You can’t just fluctuate your risk, especially if your account isn’t compounding, and even if your account is compounding, I still wouldn’t risk any more than 3%. Stick to 1-2% and you’ll be good. If Cowabunga gives you a huge stop loss at a trade signal, then adjust your lot size accordingly so your RISKING an amount your comfortable with based on your account size and your management. Otherwise, you will blow your account.

    Good Day.

    Reply
  9. pipsrgood

    I noticed the other day that the news on Baby pips tools comes out an hour earlier than Forex Factory shows it coming out…..(As usual, Babypips’ news menu is easier to use and customize)I was wondering, why the difference, and how would that affect a trade?……Also, if you don’t mind telling, what system do you personally use for swing trading the EUR/USD? (IF you happen to trade that pair)

    Thank for taking the time to help us new guys…..this blog and system help me personally more than you may realize….please keep it up!

    Reply
  10. pipsrgood

    I noticed the other day that the news on Baby pips tools comes out an hour earlier than Forex Factory shows it coming out…..(As usual, Babypips’ news menu is easier to use and customize)I was wondering, why the difference, and how would that affect a trade?……Also, if you don’t mind telling, what system do you personally use for swing trading the EUR/USD? (IF you happen to trade that pair)

    Thank for taking the time to help us new guys…..this blog and system help me personally more than you may realize….please keep it up!

    Reply

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