Cowabunga System Daily Update: Monday, 03/17/08

If this is your first time visiting this blog, read this first!

Sorry, there is still no video update because my voice hasn’t returned yet. I promise it will be back once I can speak!

Main Trend

Current Trend= The trend remained down the entire day.

Today I only looked for short trades.

News events to watch for today :
  • 9:00am EST- US TIC Data

Today’s Surf

2:00am EST- There was a moving average crossover for a short trade. RSI was less than 50, stochastics were trending down, and MACD was positive and losing value. This was a valid entry. The entry was at the close of the candle at 2.0123 with a stop at the most recent swing high at 2.0152. Since I was 23 pips away from the nearest 50 or 00 level, I decided to put my initial target at 2.0100.

Entry: Short at 2.0123

Stop: 2.0152

Initial Target: 2.0100

2:30am EST- Unfortunately I was stopped out of my trade.

2:45am EST- There was a moving average crossover for a short trade. RSI was less than 50, MACD was positive and losing value, but stochastics were not trending down. This cancelled out the signal and I did not enter.

6:00am EST- There was a moving average crossover for a short trade. RSI was less than 50, stochastics were trending down, and MACD went from positive to negative. This was a valid entry. The entry was at the close of the candle at 2.0111 with a stop at the most recent swing high at 2.0231. Since I was only 11 pips away from the nearest 50 or 00 level (2.0100), I decided to go for the same amount of pips I was risking on the trade, which in this case was 120. This put my initial target at 1.9991.

Entry: Short at 2.0111

Stop: 2.0231

Initial Target: 1.9991

7:30am EST- Amazingly my target was hit. I didn’t think the price would move this much since it’s a Monday but I must admit I was pretty happy at this point. Price did not make a clean break of my target so I took my final profit. I managed to exit at 2.0003.

entry2

Trade Result: -29 +108= +79 pips; R-Multiple: -1.00; 0.87

News events to watch for tomorrow :
  • 5:30am EST- UK CPI
  • 8:30am EST- US PPI
  • 2:15pm EST- US Interest Rate Statement
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  • jsese

    Hey man…well, I missed that trade because macd was already negative on the entry bar and I didn’t realize the strategy called for if it went negative in the crossover bar then it was valid!! I let it go (trying to stick to the rules)….then I got a valid entry at 11:45 am. All was comfirmed by the indicators and I entered (against my gut because I was sticking to the rules). Now I have that trade on with a stop at swing high 2.0105 and an intitial target of 1.9950. It’s not looking good right now. ANyway..thanks for posting. I don’t have the alerts set up since it is still demo so I actually get up at 3 am ( i live EST also) and sit here doing this. Tomorrow is another day!

  • MissPips

    Hi Pip Surfer,

    I missed that trade too because the stop was too far away (more than I can risk). I was tempted to put the stop at 2.0174 which looked to me like it might have been the swing high but I had a feeling that was wrong, so I didn’t. I see that you didn’t do it either. But can I ask why you didn’t use that bar as the swing high? Do you have some rule that there has to be at least one bar in between the entry bar and the previous swing high ( since I guess if the trade had gone wrong, that would not be a swing high anymore?) Is that correct?

  • rcgreg

    Video – You got Video ? How could I have missed that? Dude – let me know how to see it when it happens ! One other thing – anyway to make the charts bigger ? Sometimes the data is like Jelly fish on the tip of my board – dude – you know it’s there but can’t quite make it out !

  • jsese

    hey..just to let you know that the trade made at 11:45 am (crossover down, stchastics tranding down, rsi

  • jsese

    got cut off…rsi

  • jsese

    whatever..It hit the target..can you tell me if it was valid based on cowabunga system and why or why not? thanks

  • jsese

    Hey man…well, I missed that trade because macd was already negative on the entry bar and I didn’t realize the strategy called for if it went negative in the crossover bar then it was valid!! I let it go (trying to stick to the rules)….then I got a valid entry at 11:45 am. All was comfirmed by the indicators and I entered (against my gut because I was sticking to the rules). Now I have that trade on with a stop at swing high 2.0105 and an intitial target of 1.9950. It’s not looking good right now. ANyway..thanks for posting. I don’t have the alerts set up since it is still demo so I actually get up at 3 am ( i live EST also) and sit here doing this. Tomorrow is another day!

  • davidg29

    I got the trade, nice system.

  • MissPips

    Hi Pip Surfer,

    I missed that trade too because the stop was too far away (more than I can risk). I was tempted to put the stop at 2.0174 which looked to me like it might have been the swing high but I had a feeling that was wrong, so I didn’t. I see that you didn’t do it either. But can I ask why you didn’t use that bar as the swing high? Do you have some rule that there has to be at least one bar in between the entry bar and the previous swing high ( since I guess if the trade had gone wrong, that would not be a swing high anymore?) Is that correct?

  • rcgreg

    Video – You got Video ? How could I have missed that? Dude – let me know how to see it when it happens ! One other thing – anyway to make the charts bigger ? Sometimes the data is like Jelly fish on the tip of my board – dude – you know it’s there but can’t quite make it out !

  • jsese

    hey..just to let you know that the trade made at 11:45 am (crossover down, stchastics tranding down, rsi
    jsese

  • jsese

    got cut off…rsi

  • jsese

    whatever..It hit the target..can you tell me if it was valid based on cowabunga system and why or why not? thanks

  • davidg29

    I got the trade, nice system.

  • PipSurfer

    Jsese- As far as a valid trade signal goes, the trade you entered was correct. However, that 11:45 candle closed at 12pm so I did not enter. If you remember, I don’t like entering trades that late in the day. I’m glad this one worked out for you :) And it looks like you’re progressing nicely!

    Misspips- For a swing high I look for the previous 2 candles to have made lower highs and for swing lows, I look for the previous 2 candles to have made higher lows. These formations are called fractals. Now there are some exceptions for these rules but for the most part this is what I look for.

    rcgreg- Yes I started doing video last week. They will be posted along with these regular updates. My voice has been gone for some time now though which is why I haven’t been able to put one up.

    david- I’m glad it’s working for you!

    Happy trading everyone!

  • gryat

    “Misspips- For a swing high I look for the previous 2 candles to have made lower highs and for swing lows, I look for the previous 2 candles to have made higher lows. These formations are called fractals. Now there are some exceptions for these rules but for the most part this is what I look for.”

    What about the candles that comes after the swing high/low. Do they also have to be two?

  • PipSurfer

    Jsese- As far as a valid trade signal goes, the trade you entered was correct. However, that 11:45 candle closed at 12pm so I did not enter. If you remember, I don’t like entering trades that late in the day. I’m glad this one worked out for you :) And it looks like you’re progressing nicely!

    Misspips- For a swing high I look for the previous 2 candles to have made lower highs and for swing lows, I look for the previous 2 candles to have made higher lows. These formations are called fractals. Now there are some exceptions for these rules but for the most part this is what I look for.

    rcgreg- Yes I started doing video last week. They will be posted along with these regular updates. My voice has been gone for some time now though which is why I haven’t been able to put one up.

    david- I’m glad it’s working for you!

    Happy trading everyone!

  • gryat

    “Misspips- For a swing high I look for the previous 2 candles to have made lower highs and for swing lows, I look for the previous 2 candles to have made higher lows. These formations are called fractals. Now there are some exceptions for these rules but for the most part this is what I look for.”

    What about the candles that comes after the swing high/low. Do they also have to be two?

  • MissPips

    Thanks. Makes sense. If I had put my stop at 2.0172 and the trade went bad on the next bar, then 2.0172 would not have turned out to be a swing high.

  • gryat

    Look, do you mean that for a swing high the two candles before that swing high must have lower highs? Is that what you’re saying?

    How many candles after the swing high must have lower highs?

  • gryat

    Look, do you mean that for a swing high the two candles before that swing high must have lower highs? Is that what you’re saying?

    How many candles after the swing high must have lower highs?