Cowabunga System Daily Update: 02/01/07

Posted 17:51 01 February 2007 | 5
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Main Trend

Current Trend= Trend remained up for the entire day

Today I only looked for long trades

Today's Surf

You can see from the chart that we had several possible signals to go long. However, in each case, MACD was positive and cancelled out the signal. There were no trades today.

Trade Result:+0 Pips

Tide Report: We should see some heavy waves during tomorrow's NFP report. If I am in a trade before then, I will exit before the report whether I am positive or negative. The NFP is scheduled to come out at 8:30 am ET

Comments (5)

BP, would you not agree that the four hour trend chart is the first and perhaps more important chart. Meaning if the trend on the four chart is not established -- it is pointless looking at the 15 min chart. Hence despite there being several possible near entry points on the 15 min chart, they are all cancelled out because there was no real entry point on the four hour chart (except the one brief trend change up that occured). Hence, if the trend of the four chart is not established, there is no point looking at the 15 min chart. Is that a reasonalbe assumption?
pinetree | Posted 23:44 01 February 2007
There is ALWAYS a trend on the 4hr chart. Whatever the trend change candle is (up or down) determines our trend. From there on out, until we have another trend change candle, then we can always look for trades on the 15 minute chart, provided it is in the direction of the 4hr trend.
bigpippin | Posted 01:11 02 February 2007
Yes, but for the 4 hour chart, you would want to wait for the right conditions --meaning for long - Stoc > 50, Rsi > 50 and a MA cross over --and opposite for short -- which is a trend change candle. That is the set up you are waiting for is it not? And that set up may take a while before it occurs. For example this morning at 8:25am ET -- the cable is at 1.9688.The trend is up -- MA crossover is up and RSI is moving up -- but Stoc is moving down from overbought. This cancels any possible entry point on the 15 min chart does it not? Thanks for your patience as I figure this out.
pinetree | Posted 08:17 02 February 2007
I see what you are saying, but the answer is no. The criteria on the 4hr chart only has to be met for a trend change candle. As long as a valid trend change candle has been made (MA cross, RSI above/below 50, stochastics not overbought/oversold) then you can look for trades in that direction from there on out until the 4hr chart makes another valid trend change candle in the opposite direction. The whole point of the RSI and stochastics settings is just to make sure we are not entering a trend too late or early. For example, if you had an MA crossover for a long trend but Stochastics are already overbought then it means you might be too late. Or if RSI is below 50 then you might be jumping in to early. Once the trend change candle has met those criteria, then it means we have entered a trend at the right time. From there on out you don't have to continuously meet those conditions in order to look for trades on the 15 minute chart.
bigpippin | Posted 09:48 02 February 2007
That makes sense, thanks.
pinetree | Posted 14:55 02 February 2007

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