Trade Closed: 2013-04-25 7:15 ET
No matter how much weak euro zone data was thrown at it, euro bulls held strong and 1.3000 never really broke! Given the odd strength of the euro, I decided to reduce my risk and close it all down.
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After entering a small short position in EUR/USD on a break-and-retest of 1.3000, the pair couldn’t attract enough sell orders to push it down for good, even with weak euro zone data through out the week.
First, it was the weak euro zone PMI data that helped spark the initial break, and then as expected, German Ifo Business Climate data came in weaker-than-expected (104.4 vs. 106.4 expectations). This lead to a very brief spike lower, as low as 1.2955, but it seems like there were more euro bulls than bears hitting the trade buttons. Finally, we got terrible Spanish unemployment data today (27.2% vs. 26.5% expectation), but that was no help either. For me, if the market gets this kinda data and it’s still strong, that means nothing is gonna bring it down this week. I decided to just close out the trade at market (1.3065) to limit my max risk.
Total: -65 pips/ -0.29% loss
Besides a weak US durable goods data (-5.7% vs. -2.9%) I can’t find a reason as to why EUR/USD rallied (the weak US durable goods data was actually bearish for the pair). But maybe that was enough? Maybe it’s a bout of general risk-on sentiment? Or maybe it’s speculation that the Fed may have to stop the talk of pulling quantitative easing as US jobs still looks weak and inflation cools.
Whatever the case may be, I think it was the right decision to pull out of the trade with the market behaving this way. Probably the only thing I should have done differently was to pull out of the trade as soon as I got the weak German data that I was looking for. With all the major risk events of the first quarter out of the way (and as we head into the summer season), it’s probably best to go for short-term exits rather than longer swing moves.
Overall, I thought it was a good trade, but the market just didn’t behave as I expected, even with the data coming out as expected. I still kept the loss small, and I can live to trade another day….that’s all I can ask for on this one.
That’s it for me this week. Thanks for checking out my forex trading blog…have a great weekend and be sure to swing by next week!
Trade Idea: 2013-04-23 09:30 ET
Good morning forex friends! For this week, I’m going with a simple psychological break on EUR/USD as weak eurozone data sparks euro bearishness. Will traders jump in on the break?
Earlier in today’s session, we got more dreary manufacturing and service industry data in the form of euro zone Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI. All readings signaled continued contraction, most notably the German data (Manufacturing PMI at 47.9 and Services PMI at 49.2). As expected, this turned traders bearish on the euro, probably for the next couple of sessions.
So, my trade idea for this week is a simple break and retest play at the major psychological level of 1.3000. It easy broke after the PMI data this morning, and it looks like it will retest as I write in the morning US session. I’ll look to short here. My stop is a healthy 110 pips, about half of its weekly average true range, and my target will be the strong support last tested at the beginning of April. Here’s what I am going to do:
Short half position EUR/USD at market (1.3000), stop at 1.3110, max profit target at 1.2790
My risk is 0.50% of my account, and with this trade structure, I have a potential reward-to-risk ration of 1.90:1. I think there is a good probability of this working out well as risk sentiment begins to turn negative with the recent global data coming in weaker-than-expected (Chinese GDP, global jobs numbers & manufacturing data, etc.). Tomorrow’s German Ifo Business Climate data may follow that trend and help euro bears in the process. And only look to hold this until Friday, when we’ll get the quarterly US Advanced GDP numbers; this could be potentially bearish for USD if the reading comes in weaker-than-expected.
Thanks for checking out my blog…good luck and good trading!