Pick of the Day: USD/JPY – Trade Closed

Trade Closed: 2007-09-13 10:00

The Dollar continued to selloff during the Asian/European trading session against the majors, except the Yen. It looks like Japan economic weakness won out against bearish Dollar sentiment and USD/JPY rallied past our stop to beyond 115.00 for a small loss of -60 pips.

Total: -60 pips

It looks like we will continue to see range bound conditions as many market players wait on the sidelines for the Fed Interest rate decision next week, or even a steady rally as equity markets price in the rate cut. This means a return to risk and a return to the carry trade. Market conditions can change in an instant, so stay tuned!

Trade Update: 2007-09-13 00:20

USD/JPY continues to remain range bound just above 114.00. The pair is still looking overbought in the short term and I feel we may see it drop from here and resume the longer term trend. We will continue to hold our short position.

No new open orders tonight.

Trade Update: 2007-09-12 07:45

Just a quick update. We are still in our trade even after USD/JPY rallied up a bit, but not enough to stop us out. Fortunately, the pair has dropped back below 114.00 and we may continue to see a steady decline as we lack major news reports today.

For now, we will continue to hold on to our position. Stay tuned for updates!

Trade Update: 2007-09-11 11:15

USD/JPY rallied a bit up to trigger our short entry price at 114.10. The pair fell below 114.00 shortly after as we continue to see range bound conditions in the financial markets.

We will hold onto this position and cancel our open order to short at 113.20.

Good luck and stay tuned to potentially quick adjustments as Fed Chairman is set to speak very soon!

Trade Idea: 2007-09-10 23:15

PoD Chart

We will take a look at USD/JPY once again as it appears the pair retraces from the strong move from last week….

It appears that the pair has found some resistance at the 38% Fibonacci retracement level and consolidating for the time being. We may be see some volatility as the US Trade Balance data comes out tomorrow, but I think it will be short lived as the main focus of the market is whether or not the Fed will cut rates and by how much. I think traders will return to the sidelines very quickly after the report.

I would like to enter the trade on further retracement, between the 50% and 61% Fibonacci retracement levels, but I will also have a trade idea prepared to take quick pips if the pair breaks down lower on weak US data.

Short USD/JPY at 114.10, stop at 114.70, pt1 at 113.50, pt2 at 113.00

if the pair breaks lower…

Short USD/JPY at 113.20, stop at 113.70, pt1 at 113.00, pt2 at 112.50

Remember to never risk more than 1% of your account on any single trade. Adjust position sizes accordingly.

Stay tuned for updates…Good luck and good trading!

  • deleted

    hi every one here,
    i will be very glad if any one here will teach me how to trade forex.
    my mail address is usdollars4sure@yahoo.com
    thanks..

  • deleted

    hi every one here,
    i will be very glad if any one here will teach me how to trade forex.
    my mail address is usdollars4sure@yahoo.com
    thanks..

  • Avatar73

    Hi Pipcrawley.
    Watching your charts I’ve noticed there are 3 blue lines and an orange one. They look like MA’s. Can you confirm whether they are really MA’s and what periods. Also I see you use stochs. What periods?
    Look foward to hear from you.
    Thanks very much.

  • Avatar73

    Hi Pipcrawley.
    Watching your charts I’ve noticed there are 3 blue lines and an orange one. They look like MA’s. Can you confirm whether they are really MA’s and what periods. Also I see you use stochs. What periods?
    Look foward to hear from you.
    Thanks very much.

  • Pipcrawler

    For my 4hr charts I use 240 Moving Averages on the high, low, close (blue lines). The orange lines are actually bollinger bands, 1 standard deviation, and I also use another set of bollinger bands with a setting of 2 standard deviations. I also use stochastics with a setting of 10, 3, 3. This chart setup helps me gauge price trends over the past month and overbought/oversold levels. I hope this helps!

  • Pipcrawler

    For my 4hr charts I use 240 Moving Averages on the high, low, close (blue lines). The orange lines are actually bollinger bands, 1 standard deviation, and I also use another set of bollinger bands with a setting of 2 standard deviations. I also use stochastics with a setting of 10, 3, 3. This chart setup helps me gauge price trends over the past month and overbought/oversold levels. I hope this helps!

  • Avatar73

    Thanks very much Pipcrawler. It helped a lot indeed. It seems that the MA’s you use are Linear Weighted, is that correct? I just couldn’t figure it out about the BB’s. You say you use 2 sets of BB’s being one of them 1 standard deviation and the other 2. But in the BB’s settings dont you have to provide the standard deviations and the periods ??? I didnt get what period you use. Also, as far as I understood it, you use the stochs and the 240 MA’s as posible reversal points, is it correct ?
    Thanks very much man, your blog is of a great help. ;-)

  • Avatar73

    Thanks very much Pipcrawler. It helped a lot indeed. It seems that the MA’s you use are Linear Weighted, is that correct? I just couldn’t figure it out about the BB’s. You say you use 2 sets of BB’s being one of them 1 standard deviation and the other 2. But in the BB’s settings dont you have to provide the standard deviations and the periods ??? I didnt get what period you use. Also, as far as I understood it, you use the stochs and the 240 MA’s as posible reversal points, is it correct ?
    Thanks very much man, your blog is of a great help.
    ;-)