Pick of the Day: USDJPY – Trade Closed

Trade Closed: 2009-06-10 10:17

And yet another cruel day in the Forex markets…haha! Since I posted my trade idea, USDJPY did fall enough to trigger my long trade at 97.75. Unfortunately, today the pair went down further, just enough to touch my stop, take me out and rise back above 98.00…doh!

Stopped out at 97.10

Total: -65 pips/ -1.0% loss

I am a bit peeved at myself as I should have drawn the Fibonacci from 95.50 instead of around 96.50. Then I would have seen that my stop was the 50% retracement of that swing, but situations are always much clearer in retrospect, right?

So, another loss and that makes that two in a row….grrrr! Hopefully, the majors will give me another opportunity to make it back before the end of the week. Stay tuned!

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Trade Idea: 2009-06-09 00:47

PoD Chart

Good evening! I thought I’d tackle USDJPY once again as a nice technical setup is forming on the one hour chart. Let’s take a look!

As we can see on the chart, the pair has been on a short term uptrend in the one hour timeframe. Stochastics are in oversold territory, and the pair is about to hit the rising trendline. I also used the Fibonacci tool to find other potential support levels, and we can see that the 50% Fibonacci retracement area lines up around the rising trendline.

A quick look at fundamentals, and the US Dollar has been given extra support after the recent surprise in the US jobs data on Friday. The media seemed to have focused only on the headline number of jobs lost, so there was speculation that we are near the end of the recession sparked new speculation and that the Fed may raising rates to combat the potential inflation. Will the affect of jobs data and interest rate change speculation hold for long? I don’t know, but for now the “trend is our friend” and the higher probability direction to trade with. Makes sense to go with it right? So, I will go with the trend for a short-term day trade, but wait for a better price. Here’s what I am going to do:

Long USDJPY at 97.75, stop at 97.10, pt1 at 98.40, pt2 at 99.05

Remember to never risk more than 1% of a trading account on any single trade. Adjust position sizes accordingly.

No major data for the US until Thursday with Initial Claims and Retail Sales, and nothing for Japan until Wednesday with GDP. I expect technicals to play out until then. Let’s see what happens and stay tuned!

  • mstory

    thanks for this trade suggestion. I managed to get in at 97.55 with stop below 97.00. Now we wait…………….

  • mstory

    thanks for this trade suggestion. I managed to get in at 97.55 with stop below 97.00. Now we wait…………….

  • kc2009

    I dont like the looks of this trade because it is testing a long term trend line on the daily charts that has been tested 4 times. It looked like a pretty good setup until you look at the longer term charts. The best of luck to you though.

  • kc2009

    I dont like the looks of this trade because it is testing a long term trend line on the daily charts that has been tested 4 times. It looked like a pretty good setup until you look at the longer term charts. The best of luck to you though.

  • camelman

    too bad …. it went to 97.07. Pipcrawler, you think putting stops is like playing with your cards shown to the dealers and they take advantage of the investors? It seems too many times that the price go exactly to the “stop” then go the other way. Is is better not to have stop and trade when you can be infront of the computer? thanks a lot for your help.

  • camelman

    too bad …. it went to 97.07. Pipcrawler, you think putting stops is like playing with your cards shown to the dealers and they take advantage of the investors? It seems too many times that the price go exactly to the “stop” then go the other way. Is is better not to have stop and trade when you can be infront of the computer? thanks a lot for your help.

  • pipsprof.

    Hello,the H1 charts muddles up potential profitable trades and not very reliable because of drawdowns.Ur stop in this trade should be slightly below the minor support at 96.50 zone,this currency is certainly heading for 99.70 first,then 101.43 next.Am buying and aiming for 101.00 now.the H4 Daily charts are more reliable for this shortime swingtrades.Hope we all wins,Thanks for your trade ideas,it helps a great deal.

  • pipsprof.

    Hello,the H1 charts muddles up potential profitable trades and not very reliable because of drawdowns.Ur stop in this trade should be slightly below the minor support at 96.50 zone,this currency is certainly heading for 99.70 first,then 101.43 next.Am buying and aiming for 101.00 now.the H4 Daily charts are more reliable for this shortime swingtrades.Hope we all wins,Thanks for your trade ideas,it helps a great deal.

  • TuanNgo

    Hey Pipcrawler, this would be my first post on your blog, just wishing to say thanks for all the inspiration you have given me and i love your comments and positive attitude towards loosing trades.. =)… its just shows how your MM allows you to walk away from a looser and focus on the next trade without doubt.
    Cheers.

  • TuanNgo

    Hey Pipcrawler, this would be my first post on your blog, just wishing to say thanks for all the inspiration you have given me and i love your comments and positive attitude towards loosing trades.. =)… its just shows how your MM allows you to walk away from a looser and focus on the next trade without doubt.
    Cheers.