Pick of the Day: USD/JPY – Close Trade

Close Trade: 2008-05-06 10:05

It’s pretty that price action is telling us that the broken resistance did not turn to support. So, our trade idea did not work out and it’s time to close it down and move on.

Close trade at market (104.20). -50 pips/ -0.5% loss

So, it looks like the US Dollar is selling off once again against the majors as US lending companies report bad news. We will just have to wait and see if this sentiment will hold, or if it will be an opportunity to catch the recent USD buying trend. Stay tuned!

Trade Update: 2008-05-05 23:28

Hello Everyone! Just a quick update as USD/JPY has fallen back down to the broken resistance area and triggered our buy orders at 104.70.

From here, I look to continue to hold onto our position and see if buyers jump in. No major news events in the pipeline for the next few trading sessions, so technicals should play out barring any unseen news events. Stay tuned for updates and adjustments. Good luck!

Trade Idea: 2008-05-02 15:14

PoD Chart

US Non-Farm Payrolls has come and gone for the month of May, and with job loss reported less than expected at -20k versus -75k expected. I usually don’t hold my breath when it comes to this data as it is usually revised down the road, but I think it has definitely solidified sentiment that the US Dollar turn around is for real… for now.

So, the trend has been up on USD/JPY and it looks like the pair has broken upper resistance on today’s price action. If we see a pull back to that broken resistance area, 104.65, we may see renewed buying interest. I also used a Fibonacci retracement tool on the 103.50 to 105.71 swing, and the 50% retracement level gives us another idea to play a long position.

Long USD/JPY at 104.70, stop at 103.70, pt1 at 105.70, pt2 at 108.00

Remember to never risk more than 1% of your account on any single trade. Adjust position sizes accordingly.

That second is way out there because I look trail our stop if we hit our first profit target.

Stay tuned for updates and adjustments. Good luck and good trading!

  • camelman

    Pipcrawler, You think its still good to get in now. Its almost at the entry point again. Or its not a good idea and sentiment have changed. Thanks

  • demontez

    Hello Pip,
    I was going to pup the same question as camelman on when is the right time to enter this trade as i watched it come down to 104.80 but it did not hit the target. However i have followed it going up from 104.80 using my practice account.

  • camelman

    Pipcrawler, You think its still good to get in now. Its almost at the entry point again. Or its not a good idea and sentiment have changed. Thanks

  • demontez

    Hello Pip,
    I was going to pup the same question as camelman on when is the right time to enter this trade as i watched it come down to 104.80 but it did not hit the target. However i have followed it going up from 104.80 using my practice account.

  • Pipcrawler

    Hey guys, I do see risk aversion possibly creeping into traders minds, but I think i’m going to hold on for now and see what happens in the Euro/Asia trading overlap. Stay tuned!

  • Pipcrawler

    Hey guys, I do see risk aversion possibly creeping into traders minds, but I think i’m going to hold on for now and see what happens in the Euro/Asia trading overlap. Stay tuned!

  • DavidRieger

    I’m in on this one and it’s a little slow on the uptake, getting info from other sources that they hanging short on this trade….hmmmm.

  • comfibold

    I banked 35 pips on this trade. Many thanks!

  • Babysteps

    None sense to me !!
    Anyone can explain why this DOWN MOVE???
    MY trade hit SL

  • demontez

    Pip,
    i really still feel you have to look at a more analysis of this trade as it might just be going back up past the entry point of 10470.0 never to come down again. Please look at this trade analysis again. They have been a strong buying opportunity in the last 30 minutes

  • DavidRieger

    I’m in on this one and it’s a little slow on the uptake, getting info from other sources that they hanging short on this trade….hmmmm.

  • comfibold

    I banked 35 pips on this trade. Many thanks!

  • Babysteps

    None sense to me !!
    Anyone can explain why this DOWN MOVE???
    MY trade hit SL

  • Pipcrawler

    Yeah demontez… i had a feeling there would be buying interest at 104.00 and it looks like the case…

  • Pipcrawler

    I’m just not a fan of the price action now and what’s going on …I think the economy will continue to get worse and won’t even start to get better next year…I think risk aversion and carry trade deleveraging will still be in play over the longer term…of course we will see minor correctional rallies in USD, but I think I’m going to stay away from them for now….

  • enochbenjamin

    Looks like the original trade with a sto at 103.70 is still in play? My DeMark lines tell me support is 104.05.

    But don’t listen to me as I was a chicken and bailed on this trade at 104.92 for a small profit.

  • demontez

    Pip,
    i really still feel you have to look at a more analysis of this trade as it might just be going back up past the entry point of 10470.0 never to come down again. Please look at this trade analysis again. They have been a strong buying opportunity in the last 30 minutes

  • Pipcrawler

    Yeah demontez… i had a feeling there would be buying interest at 104.00 and it looks like the case…

  • Pipcrawler

    I’m just not a fan of the price action now and what’s going on …I think the economy will continue to get worse and won’t even start to get better next year…I think risk aversion and carry trade deleveraging will still be in play over the longer term…of course we will see minor correctional rallies in USD, but I think I’m going to stay away from them for now….

  • enochbenjamin

    Looks like the original trade with a sto at 103.70 is still in play? My DeMark lines tell me support is 104.05.

    But don’t listen to me as I was a chicken and bailed on this trade at 104.92 for a small profit.