Pick of the Day: USD/JPY – Trade Closed

Trade Closed: 2007-09-10 09:00

Yesterday, USD/JPY made a move lower beyond 113.00 to hit around 112.60. This movement was enough to move our stop down to 113.75 as planned in the last update. After finding a short term bottom at 112.60 the pair rallied up over 100 points to hit our adjusted stop loss at 113.75 and close out our trade.

1st half: +90 pips
2nd half: +225 pips
Total: +315 pips

I’m still short bias on USD/JPY but it looks like it’s running through a correction retracement. I expect to short once again in the near future. For now, we are flat with no open trades. Stay tuned!

Trailing Stop: 2007-09-07 11:17

As expected, USD/JPY is dropping like a rock and quickly approaching our adjusted profit target at 113.00. I’d like to adjust our stop to a trailing stop as we don’t know how far the Dollar will drop.

Adjust stop to 114.00 to lock in 200 pips. Trail every 25 pip movement starting from 113.00 (i.e if rate moves from 113.00 to 112.75, adjust stop to 113.75)
Cancel profit target at 113.00
Let’s see how far this bad boy will go.

Stay tuned!

Adjustments: 2007-09-07 08:44

US Non-Farm Payrolls came out at -4K and previous numbers were revised down. The Dollar drops like a rock on this news as it is now perceived that the Fed will cut on Sept. 18th…

I think USD/JPY has alot further to drop through the next couple of weeks, so I will make a few adjustments to maximize profit on our position.

Adjust stop to 114.75 to lock in further profits. Adjust profit target to 113.00

Good luck and stay tuned to further adjustments!

Stop Adjustment: 2007-09-06 23:25

We have US Non-Farm Payroll report out tomorrow and this one may be a doozy as it may be the last definitive indicator on whether or not the Fed may cut rates.

Because of potentially crazy volatility we may see tomorrow I have decided to lock in some pips for our remaining position by adjusting stop to 115.50.

This may cause the trade to be prematurely closed during the European trading session, but that’s okay. We’ve just locked in a total of +140 pips, so we’re just going for a little more icing on our cake. No new trades for tonight. We will just continue to watch USD/JPY. Stay tuned!

Trade Adjustment: 2007-09-05 10:17

We just saw a USD sell off against the majors as Pending Home Sales came in weaker than expected at -12.2%…

I would like to make an adjustment on our trade as we have major news events coming up this week with ISM Non-Manufacturing data and Non-Farm Payrolls.

Close half our position at market (115.10) to lock in +90 pips. Adjust stop to 116.50 on remaining position. Continue to target 114.00

Good luck!

Stop Adjustment: 2007-09-04 08:30

It was a nice long holiday weekend here in the U.S., but it’s time to get back to work with a little stop adjustment as our trade goes our way in USD/JPY.

The pair has moved lower during the morning European trading session, making a low around 115.30 before retracing back up to 115.50.

I would like to reduce our risk in the trade progressively by adjust our stop with every 50 pips movement in our direction. So…

Adjust stop from 118.00 to 117.50.

Looks like risk aversion in the market as USD is currently making a small rally against the majors, except for the Yen. We will see more volatility this week with major reports coming out of the US, so stay tuned for trade adjustments or possible scenarios where we may have to close our position prematurely. Good luck!

Trade Update: 2007-09-01 10:50

Our trade has been triggered short at 116.00 as the pair rallied to 116.50, but shortly fell before the end of the trading day back below 116.00

Again, I stand on the view that we will see more risk aversion to come as we continue to get more and more data on how bad the mortgage mess will effect different aspects of the economy from jobs, consumer spending, economic growth, and so on.

So, we will hold on to this trade and stay tuned for stop and profit target adjustments. Good luck!

Trade Idea: 2007-08-30 20:46

PoD Chart

For tonight’s “Pick” we are going to check out the USD/JPY and see if we can get some major pippage out of it!

Now, I’m in the camp that thinks there is more risk aversion to come and that we’ve only seen the beginning. This lines up with our chart on USD/JPY. As we all know, global risk aversion benefits the Yen as market players reduce risk through carry trade unwinding. The pair is currently in a down trend with stochs in overbought territory and price action finding resistance at 116.00. We are going to have a wide 200 pip stop, so adjust position sizes accordingly to keep within the 1% account risk rule!”

Short USD/JPY at 116.00, stop at 118.00, pt1 at 114.00, pt2 at 110.00

Stay tuned for updates and good luck!

7 comments

  1. swordofrue

    I think overall shorting this pair would be a smart thing. However, I am unsure of your entry point. I would rather wait for a entry at 115 so that way I can see if it goes up some more before dropping down. Since you have a 200 pip stop I would like entry up there somewhere ;)

    Reply
  2. swordofrue

    I think overall shorting this pair would be a smart thing. However, I am unsure of your entry point. I would rather wait for a entry at 115 so that way I can see if it goes up some more before dropping down. Since you have a 200 pip stop I would like entry up there somewhere ;)

    Reply
  3. Joey90210

    I went long on the USD/yen this morning (bangkok time) and made about 100 pips. I closed my positon, and opened a short on USD/YEN, still losing at the moment hope that will change for the better anytime soon.

    Reply
  4. Joey90210

    I went long on the USD/yen this morning (bangkok time) and made about 100 pips. I closed my positon, and opened a short on USD/YEN, still losing at the moment hope that will change for the better anytime soon.

    Reply
  5. Joey90210

    Ok what’s it gonna be? The cowabunga system or this :

    Long USDJPY 116.20 (now JPY trapped in a 40 pips range 116.20 – 116.60)
    Target 119.35
    Stoploss 115.50 (this level is supported by BoJ and major Banks)
    Long term 122

    Confusing stuff for a newb.
    ???

    Reply
  6. Joey90210

    Ok what’s it gonna be? The cowabunga system or this :

    Long USDJPY 116.20 (now JPY trapped in a 40 pips range 116.20 – 116.60)
    Target 119.35
    Stoploss 115.50 (this level is supported by BoJ and major Banks)
    Long term 122

    Confusing stuff for a newb.
    ???

    Reply
  7. Avatar73

    Hi Pipcrawler.
    Thanks very much for the great job ur doing with this blog.
    I’m sorry if I’m asking a stupid question here, but where can I find the exact rules of your ”system” ?
    Thanks in advance and keep up the good work. ;-)

    Reply

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