Trade Update: 2007-02-02 10:20

Consumer confidence was released with a reading of 96.9, below the consensus of about 98.0. We also got the Factory Orders number coming in at 2.4% versus the consensus of 1.9%. So, mixed numbers at 10:00 am EST, which means we probably won't see much movement for the rest of the day.

With a low probability that our orders will trigger, we will cancel all open orders and take an early weekend.

On a side note: For those of you who aren't checking out the "Currency Cross" blog, it looks like we've been triggered and up approximately 50 pips on the blended price. Don't forget to check it out!

Trade Update: 2007-02-02 08:40

We just saw the Non-Farm Payrolls number out at 111K, slightly lower than expected. Huge upward revisions adding a net 99K jobs to November and December. The market in USD/CHF is currently selling off. With a headline number slightly under, and revisions on Dec and Nov up, i don't think we will see a strong trend form. The US economy seems to be just right!

If the pair continues to selloff, we'll look to fade the strong move if it reaches all the way down to 1.2355. The market is still digesting the information, so if the pair reverses shoots up we'll look for a short trade near 1.2450. Here's a couple trade ideas:

Short half a normal position size of USD/CHF at 1.2460, stop at 1.2500, pt at 1.2410

Remember to never risk more than 1% of your account on any single trade, so please adjust your position sizes accordingly.

Trade Idea: 2007-02-01 23:55

Well folks, it's the end of the week and that time of the month again - Non-Farm Payrolls! We've had a cornucopia of data this week, and as expected the markets have pretty much stayed range bound leading up to NFP. So, what do we do now?

NFP is a very dangerous report to trade. It can be so volatile that entering trades after the release can mean massive slippage. So, we will wait for the number to be released, and depending on the outcome of that report, we will look to jump into a trend or fade a strong move in USD/CHF. It's currently consolidating, which is a sign traders are waiting, and that we'll see an explosive move later.

Stay tuned and check back tomorrow for a possible trade ideas after the US reports are released at 8:30 am EST.