Forex Trade Updates: NZD/CAD Long & AUD/USD Short

Volatility is here, pushing the forex markets all over the place.  With fear so high and the weekend coming up, it’s time to update & make adjustments on my AUD/USD & NZD/CAD trades.

Long NZD/CAD

Original Trade Idea: Forex Trade Idea: NZD/CAD Long on Pullback

NZD/CAD 4-Hour Forex Chart

NZD/CAD 4-Hour Forex Chart

I actually don’t have an adjust for my NZD/CAD as the pair really hasn’t gone much of anywhere in the last week or so.  I did want to make an observation that the area around the rising 200 moving average and minor psychological support level of .9250 seems to be drawing in buyers.  And with the stochastic indicator now rising out of oversold conditions, I like my odds a little better that the trend will continue.

So, I will hold for now and leave open my addition long quarter position order at .9000 in case the market gets down there.  Hopefully not, but I still wouldn’t mind adding to the position there since the trend will still be valid at that point.  Why not improve your position price, right?

Short AUD/USD

Original Trade Idea: Forex Trade Idea: Rising Wedge on AUD/USD?

AUD/USD 4-Hour Forex Chart

AUD/USD 4-Hour Forex Chart

I’ve got a much different story going on in my AUD/USD short, which has fallen a fast 300 pips since I entered at .7167 despite some mildly positive Australia jobs data this week.  This is likely due to the broad risk aversion flows we’re seeing thanks to the falling oil markets and a spill over of fear from the falling Chinese equity market, and they are stories that may continue into next week.

With a big gain and the weekend quickly approaching, I’ve decided to roll down my stop from .7560 to .6965, locking in +202 pips and creating a risk free trade.  It’s a very small position, so I’ll definitely look to add to my position next week if the market can stay below the .6900 handle.  Stay tuned and have a great weekend!

  • Behrang

    Referring to your new idea (Short-term NZD/USD Downtrend), don’t you think that the two trades are in opposite directions. It is a little bit confusing, if we expect both trades work, I believe if NZD/USD goes to downtrend, NZD/CAD will hit the stop point. Please teach me what I am missing here.

    Many thanks,

    • Pipcrawler

      Hey Behrang….Since I trade both short and longer timeframes, I usually have a portfolio of trades on that sometimes have conflicting biases, depending on what the driving theme may be at the moment. This is the way I like to trade as it reduces my need to be exact with timing or trade entry/exit. Plus, with driving themes changing so often in FX, it makes it easier to make sure I eventually get on the right side of a trade or at the very least, I can close trades with a profit or a very small loss and move on.

      It’s a method that’s beyond the scope of a beginner’s blog and something I still think I have a long way to go to master, but it works for me. My goal for this blog is for you and newbie readers out there to recognize trades with a better than average probability of success (i.e., technicals and fundamentals lining up) and how to manage risk safely (i.e., stops, account risk, trade adjustments). Once you get the hang of that, you can then go out and build your own portfolio of trades that match your risk management comfort level and skills. Hope this helps.