Forex Trade Updates: EUR/USD & AUD/JPY

With the weekend quickly approaching, I thought I’d share updates and thoughts on my EUR/USD and AUD/JPY trades.

Before you move on, for those who are not familiar with my framework, signals, setups, or acronyms, please visit my discretionary trading framework blog.

EUR/USD: Euro to Move Lower on Potential Easing?

EUR/USD 4 Hour Forex Chart

EUR/USD 4 Hour Forex Chart

My EUR/USD short on the possibility of the ECB easing monetary policy and the break of a strong rising trendline looks to be going well.  But one thing I’ve learned from experience is that anything can happen with the euro, so I can’t breathe a sigh of relief just yet with under three weeks to go until the ECB meeting.  With that said, I’m going to hold onto this position into the weekend but make one adjustment to my stop to reduce my risk in case we get new developments for the euro or the Greenback over the weekend.

Since the pair did move 100 pips lower since my entry, I’m trailing my stop loss by 100 pips from 1.3905 to 1.3805.

Unless we do get new developments to the rate cut story, EUR/USD will most likely continue lower with 1.3500 as the next target for bears.

AUD/JPY: AUD/JPY Set to Move Higher?

AUD/JPY 4 Hour Forex Chart

AUD/JPY 4 Hour Forex Chart

Thanks to strong risk aversion moves in Thursday’s U.S. trading session, AUD/JPY has pulled back to a previous consolidation area and major psychological level.  My long order at 95.00 was triggered and the area seems to be holding for now.

I’m not fond of being short Yen during a risk-off environment, but until I see more moves across the capital markets telling me otherwise, I still see this as an opportunity to get into a pair in a longer-term uptrend, with positive carry, and a turn around story in the Aussie.

No changes to my exit orders of 93.50 or 96.50 for now, but I may consider closing out quickly if the momentum to the downside remains strong and the previous swing low around 94.25 breaks.  Stay tuned!

  • Stevecsd

    It looks like the EURUSD hit bottom on my FinFx charts at around 1.3660 (+/-). I don’t think it going lower in the next few days. I am showing daily & weekly support at 1.3670. There is also a monthly support at around 1.3725, so it may bounce around in that range for a while.

    The dollar (ADX) has come back to the 50% Fib line from its down trend between Feb 3 & May 7th. It seems to have resistance at the 50% Fib line at $80.00