With the summer temperature rising and June in the rearview, it’s time to reflect and see what we can do better with my forex trades with my Q2 review!
Basic Forex Trading Stats
Total Number of Trades Ideas for Q2: 8
Breakeven/No Trade: 1
Win % (winning trades / triggered trades): 28.6%
Average Winning Trade in %: +0.35%
Average Losing Trade in %: -0.51%
Largest Drawdown: -2.00%
Total Q2 2015 Blog Profit / Loss in %: -2.91%
A couple of big early hits (and the shifting environment) kept me in cautious mode in Q2. Took half the trades I took in Q1 and my main directional biases (long NZD and USD) hurt me as both reversed early in the quarter.
AUD/NZD hurt me the most with two attempts to short, but dovish RBNZ comments and a broad outlook of eventual rate cuts (which did happen) slammed, and continues to slam, the Kiwi; both trades combined for a -1.50% hit to my account. I also took a full 1.00% hit on my early GBP/USD short position after a a slew of weak U.S. data took away from the argument that the Federal Reserve should raise interest rates in June. This obviously took air out of the bullish Dollar sentiment, and really making me very cautious in putting new positions on(seven less trade ideas in Q2 vs. Q1) because I couldn’t get past the fundamental notion that the U.S. was one of the few major economies in recovery mode and should only be bought.
So while I had many mistakes, probably my biggest was not switching my biases. For example, even though I took a loss on trying to go long Kiwi, I could have easily made the losses back and then some shorting it. Even after missing the first half of the Kiwi Q2 sell off, AUD/NZD has rallied another 700 pips or so after my last stop out where I could have reversed my bias. The fundamental argument was there (RBNZ rate cut) but I think the longer-term trend and high interest rate kept me in bull mode.
I still have a lot to work on, especially now that this quarter puts my blog performance down for the year (-1.29% YTD) relative to my benchmarks: the Barclay Hedge Currency Traders Index (+2.74% YTD thru the end of June) and the Barclay Hedge Discretionary Traders Index (+0.89% YTD thru the end of June). The silver lining to the whole thing is that -1.29% is not a big hurdle to over come, and that my benchmarks aren’t that far ahead of me. And that I still have the rest of 2015 to make it up, so I’m definitely motivated now to lock it in and play it smarter with my biases and entries.
That’s all I got for now forex friends…How did you do in Q2 2015? Please share your thoughts in the comment box below. Thanks for stopping by and good luck in Q3 2015!