With March almost outta here, that means we’re already through Q1, which of course means it’s time to reflect and see what we can do better with my forex trades!
Basic Forex Trading Stats
Total Number of Trades Ideas for Q1: 15
Breakeven/No Trade: 6
Win % (winning trades / triggered trades): 66.67%
Average Winning Trade in %: +0.31%
Average Losing Trade in %: -0.51%
Largest Drawdown: -1.00%
Total Q1 2015 Blog Profit / Loss in %: +1.67%
Looking back at my first quarter, I was heavy on the USD long trade with 8 out of 15 trade ideas in USD currency pairs, trying to play the idea the Greenback would rally on speculation the Fed would raise interest rates in the U.S. And fortunately, I was able to capitalize on 4 out of 8 of those USD plays, but I could have done much better.
On nearly half of my trade ideas (6 out of 15), I missed out on the right directional move trying to wait for a pullback. I certainly missed out on profits at the beginning of the quarter because of this need I still have to get in at a better price, but thankfully I adjusted at the end of January by going with a scale in entry technique, starting with a small nibbler position at market.
With that small adjustment to my entry technique, I managed to end the quarter strong, but one thing I need to do better is applying strategies to stay in trades during event risk. Sometimes I have a bias going into big events, and rather than tightening up my risk and staying in trade, I tend to cut out quickly out of fear of giving too much of my profit back.
That was the case for both my GBP/USD and NZD/USD trades where I thought the extreme cold weather in the U.S. would bring weaker-than-expected U.S. employment numbers (btw…it didn’t). Big moves in favor of the Dollar after the U.S. produced strong jobs numbers, and had me definitely leaving a lot of profit left on the table as I never got back in those trades.
So, while I still have a lot to work on, I’m pretty happy with how I performed because I saw my mistakes, adjusted, and it lead to a decent profit of +1.67% relative to my benchmarks: the Barclay Hedge Currency Traders Index (+1.53% YTD thru the end of Feb.) and the Barclay Hedge Discretionary Traders Index (+0.77% YTD thru Feb.).
I know they don’t have the March numbers yet, but with the tight ranges we’ve seen lately, I think I’m still in the mix with the pros. And besides consistent profitability, consistently outpacing the “pros” is a long-term goal, both of which I still have many, many, many years of practice to go (and hopefully a lot of luck) for me to achieve.
That’s all I got for now forex friends…How did you do in Q1 2015? Please share your thoughts in the comment box below. Thanks for stopping by and good luck in Q2 2015!