Forex Trade Review: 2014-07-09
Despite a booming U.S. Employment number, there wasn’t a big follow through to the upside for U.S. Dollar pairs. USD/JPY not only didn’t rally higher, but it fell back to my adjusted stop.
Original Trade Idea: Reliable Support on USD/JPY for Range Play?
Just ahead of the U.S. employment data last week, I announced on my Twitter and Facebook pages that I closed half of my position at 101.90 to lock in profit and adjusted the stop on my remaining position to breakeven (101.50) to create a risk free trade. The NFP number ended up exploding like fireworks to the upside at 288K net adds, and the previous month was revised higher to 224K vs. 217K. With such good numbers, I thought it best to continue to let the trade ride and see if the Greenback would continue to rally.
Alas, it was back to the downside for USD/JPY on what looks to be broad market risk aversion sentiment over the past few days. The pullback lower was enough to hit the adjusted stop at breakeven to take me out of my remaining position at 101.50.
First half: +40 pips
Second half: +00 pips
Total: +20 pips/ +0.20% gain
In hindsight, probably the only thing I could have done differently was to close my remaining position when the market wasn’t able to hold that minor support at 102.00 after NFP. Besides that, I think my usual protocol to lock-in profits ahead of a tier one event was a good idea because that number could have easily gone the other way.
For now, I’m staying out of USD/JPY ahead of the FOMC meeting minutes coming up, but I’m definitely still willing to play the strong support level at 101.50.
Also, I’ve decided to close out my orders on my CAD/CHF and NZD/CHF long trades since they’re pretty far from my entry levels. That leaves me with only my EUR/AUD short, which is performing nicely for now with positive pips and carry. I may add to that position soon, so stay tuned!