Reflecting on My Q4 2016 Forex Performance

I’ve spent a good part of the holidays sneaking off to crunch the numbers on my trading performance for Q4 2016 and to figure out what I can still improve on. Here’s what I got!

Basic Forex Trading Stats

DATE TRADE IDEA P/L in pips P/L in %
Oct 4 USD/CHF Bearish Momentum -80 -0.13
Oct 5 GBP/NZD Triangle Support Break +397.5 +0.40
Oct 12 AUD/JPY Symmetrical Triangle +118 +0.13
Oct 20 GBP/CAD Correction Levels Not triggered Not triggered
Oct 31 CHF/JPY Long-Term Selloff -220 -0.43
Nov 10 USD/JPY Range Support -450 -0.23
Nov 14 USD/JPY Long-Term Correction +150 +0.21
Nov 28 Short-Term USD/JPY Uptrend +200 +0.47
Dec 12 EUR/CAD Major Breakdown Not triggered Not triggered

Total Number of Trade Ideas in Q4: 9
Wins: 4
Losses: 3
Breakeven/No Trade: 2
Win % (winning trades / triggered trades): 57%
Average Winning Trade in %: +0.30
Average Losing Trade in %: -0.26%
Largest Drawdown: -0.66%
Average % risk per trade: 0.50%
Total Q4 Blog Profit / Loss in %: +0.42%

I started off on a shaky note with my USD/CHF position that I decided to exit early in order to trim my losses. My next setup was a pretty good win on GBP/NZD that, not only put my account back in the black for the month, but also boosted my trading confidence. I was able to follow through with another win on AUD/JPY, although I also had to close this one early as fundamentals shifted.

Next up were a couple of losses on the yen pairs, one due to a long-term bias that I couldn’t shake off and another because of hasty decision-making when the U.S. election results were coming in. These back-to-back losses put me back in the red, but they served as strong reminders to stick to my trade plan and focus on the setups that are aligned with fundamentals.

It wasn’t long before I was able to score consecutive wins trading USD/JPY that were enough to yield a positive Q4 for me. Even though I’m sorta happy with how these setups turned out, I couldn’t help but wish that I had the guts to hold on to those long positions for a bit longer since the pair’s uptrend hasn’t been showing signs of stopping lately.

Then again, considering how my previous positions haven’t fared well, I guess I was more eager to lock in my gains instead of taking the risk by pressing my advantage. Looking back, I remember being able to go long at 107.75 and then at 111.85 so I could’ve really bagged a lot of pips had I played this as a swing trade all the way up to the post-FOMC 118.00 levels!

As for my takeaways this quarter, I’ll be more mindful of changes in fundamentals or overall market sentiment when taking setups. It sounds like a no-brainer but I’ve often found it challenging to abide by this when I spot a neat technical play. Moving forward, I’ll line up my fundamental biases first before deciding which pairs to trade instead of the other way around.

Another lesson for me to remember is to try to hold on to positions based on longer-term charts for much longer and press my advantage whenever I can. It’s been a bit of a struggle keeping some risk on the line when I see the paper profits trickling in, as my eyes light up with dollar signs and I grab my winnings quickly. I guess I can partly chalk this up to recovering my trading mojo after a large drawdown, but I gotta remind myself that I can always make risk adjustments in order to lock in some gains along the way or reduce my exposure.

That’s all I got for now forex friends… How did you do in Q4 2016? Please share your thoughts in the comment box below.  Thanks for checking out my blog and I’ll see y’all next year!

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