Reflecting on My Q3 2016 Forex Performance

Time really does fly when your catching pips, huh? Here’s a quick rundown of the setups I’ve taken in the previous quarter and my takeaways.

Basic Forex Trading Stats

DATE TRADE IDEA P/L in pips P/L in %
July 4 Quick Pullback on GBP/USD  +370 +0.57
July 7 GBP/USD Short-Term Retracement +87.5 +0.06
July 12 EUR/GBP Long-Term Trend Line -50 -0.07
July 26 USD/CAD Break and Retest 0 0
Aug 8 Short-Term NZD/JPY Downtrend -50 -0.08
Aug 16 GBP/USD Pullback Play Canceled Canceled
Aug 30 Quick Pullback on USD/JPY Canceled Canceled
Sept 5 Catching Guppy’s Uptrend -160 -0.18
Sept 6 CAD/JPY Descending Triangle -115 -0.07

Total Number of Trade Ideas in Q3: 9
Wins: 2
Losses: 4
Breakeven/No Trade: 3
Win % (winning trades / triggered trades): 22%
Average Winning Trade in %: +0.31
Average Losing Trade in %: -0.10%
Largest Drawdown: -0.40%
Average % risk per trade: 0.50%
Total Q3 Blog Profit / Loss in %: +0.23%

I was off to a good start in Q3, just as I was in the previous quarter, then it was all downhill from there. Fortunately, my first couple of wins for the period were enough to make up for my tiny losses for the succeeding months, allowing me to end Q3 with a teensy win.

My win rate was a disappointment as I fumbled to catch long-term setups in a market environment that clearly favored shorter-term moves. Of course, hindsight is 20/20 but I should’ve made adjustments in my strategy, particularly when it comes to setting my stops and my time frames for holding on to trades then.

At least I was able to keep my losses to a minimum by cutting my positions early when the tides were turning against me. I was completely off on a couple of calls but I managed to jump ship just in time. Still, I could’ve escaped with  few more decent gains had I not set my profit targets too far of if I hadn’t hesitated to book my wins early.

Looking ahead, I’m seeing stronger trends in the past few weeks as major market themes such as the potential Fed rate hike, Brexit jitters, crude oil price action, and central bank policy biases are in play. With that, I’ll be mindful of catching more short-term moves while keeping tabs on the bigger market picture.

Assuming the trends carry on for the next few months, I’ll be on the lookout for pullback setups with more reasonable stops and profit targets, ready to exit early if the story changes. As with my previous takeaways, I’ll stick to my strategy of going for nibbler entries then adding on momentum or corrections instead of waiting for the “perfect entry” levels on setups.

That’s all I got for now forex friends… How did you do in Q3 2016? Please share your thoughts in the comment box below.  Thanks for stopping by and good luck on the rest 2016!