Reflecting on My Q2 2016 Forex Performance

Time really does fly when your catching pips, huh? Here’s a quick rundown of the setups I’ve taken in the previous quarter and my takeaways.

Basic Forex Trading Stats

DATE TRADE IDEA P/L in pips P/L in %
Apr 5 NZD/USD Grind Higher  +98 +0.17
Apr 6 GBP/CAD Support Break? +156 +0.21
Apr 11 GBP/AUD Downtrend Pullback Not triggered  Not triggered
Apr 13 EUR/AUD Pullback Short +198 +0.14
Apr 14 USD/CHF Long +78 +0.23
Apr 19 GBP/USD Range Play -136 -1.00
Apr 27 GBP/AUD Countertrend Long Not triggered Not triggered
May 2 CAD/JPY Rising Wedge -185 -0.32
May 5 USD/JPY Fibs Ahead of NFP -55 -0.15
May 11 GBP/CAD Fib Short -252 -0.50
May 16 Short-Term AUD/NZD Short  Not triggered  Not triggered
May 25 EUR/NZD Short +200 +0.28
June 14 AUD/JPY Range Breakdown +36 +0.05

Total Number of Trade Ideas in Q2: 13
Wins: 6
Losses: 4
Breakeven/No Trade: 3
Win % (winning trades / triggered trades): 60%
Average Winning Trade in %: +0.18
Average Losing Trade in %: -0.49%
Largest Drawdown: -1.97%
Average % risk per trade: 0.50%
Total Q2 Blog Profit / Loss in %: -0.89%

As you’ve probably noticed from the table above, I was off to a pretty good start for the quarter, scoring back-to-back wins and maintaining a consistent risk per trade. However, I may have gotten a bit overconfident when I decided to up my risk to a full 1% with that GBP/USD range play that ended up hitting my stop.

From there, I fell into a losing streak in early May as I tried to catch big moves with the pound pairs. At that time, I was also pre-occupied with non-trading matters that I wasn’t able to actively manage my positions. Unfortunately for my account, it was also around that time when market sentiment became fickle, demanding quick adjustments or even early exits. That’s when Brexit updates became the talk of the town and the pound rallied and reversed whenever survey results would come out.

But if there’s one thing I’m proud of with my Q2 results, it’s that I managed to maintain a solid win percentage of 60%. As I’ve mentioned in my Q1 2016 forex performance takeaways, having a nibbler entry of 0.50% risk does allow me to catch more setups and not miss out by waiting for the “perfect entry” with pullbacks.

Moving forward, I’ll stick with this scaled entries strategy since I tend to get the fundamental bias right most of the time. Even if this reduces my average return-per-trade to less than 1:1, these winners should add up over time and also help me build trust in my own analysis.

In terms of what I can still improve, I guess I’ll have to remind myself to be more conscious of shifting market themes or to sit on the sidelines if I won’t be around to make adjustments to my open positions. I also need to be able to recognize which market updates are bound to affect price action in the short-term and which ones are evolving into longer-term themes. That way, I can make a better decision of whether or not to keep a trade open for much longer and press my advantage. I know this may sound contradictory to my strategy of locking in profits right away but it’s all about balance!

With the Brexit theme pretty much overshadowing almost every other market-driver out there, I’ll be on the lookout for updates that could keep the pound and euro trending lower. I have a feeling that things are bound to get much more exciting and volatile from here since central bank heads are scrambling to figure out what to do next, possibly yielding huge trade opportunities if they do decide to take monetary policy action.

That’s all I got for now forex friends… How did you do in Q2 2016? Please share your thoughts in the comment box below.  Thanks for stopping by and good luck on the rest 2016!