Forex Trade Idea: Swing Short on NZD/USD

Spotted my usual technical trend setup forming on NZD/USD, which may pair well with an upcoming top tier catalyst coming from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) this week.

Before you move on, for those who are not familiar with my framework, signals, setups, or acronyms, please visit my discretionary trading framework blog.

NZD/USD 1 Hour Forex Chart

NZD/USD 1 Hour Forex Chart

We’ve got the RBNZ monetary policy decision this week, and while I don’t like to make predictions on any economic events–especially top tier ones–my main man Forex Gump made a nice argument on why we could see a cut this week. Of course, the Kiwi has continue to fall since that post almost a month ago, which means we could see a pop higher in NZD/USD on a “buy-the-rumor, sell-the-news” anticipation/reaction to this week’s event.  Overall, I still like the Greenback against the Kiwi, but I’m going conservative with getting into a position by starting really, really small, and waiting for a pullback.

On the hourly chart above of NZD/USD, I pointed out a potential resistance area where the Fibonacci levels, falling moving average and trendline all line up. If there is a bounce this week, I’m going in short around that area.  My stop will be a wide one of nearly one weekly ATR, and my initial target will be the recent swing low.  Here’s what I’m doing:

Shorting a quarter position NZD/USD at .6650, max stop at .6800, initial target at .6500

Remember to never risk more than 1% of a trading account on any single trade. Adjust position sizes accordingly. Create your own ideas and don’t follow what I do. Risk Disclosure.

I’m only risking 0.25% of my account on this one, and with this trade structure, I have a potential reward-to-risk ratio of about 1:1.  After the RBNZ event, if I’m still in the trade and the story makes sense, I’ll look to increase my position size and trail my stop to maximize my gains safely.

Of course, anything can happen in the forex markets, so if the story changes I’ll be sure to reassess and adjust quickly if necessary. Stay tuned by following me on Twitter and Facebook!

  • Silverio Tufano

    I am short since the 10th July after the break of the resistence at 0.67 level. Not sure yet what I will do, if I will close my position before the RBNZ monetary policy decision this week or I will keep it open and see what happen.

    What you will do in my case?

    • Pipcrawler

      I’m not sure what to do in your case without all the details, but you got two choices: trail your stop down to lock in profits or close your position to lock in profits. Either way, you walk away a winner if the market goes against you. Good luck bud!

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