USD/CHF: Waiting for a Breakout

Trade Idea : 2013-7-19 3:58 am EST

USD/CHF 4-hour Chart

Remember that setup I pointed out on USD/CHF earlier this week? Well, the pair is still there! (Hey, that rhymes.)

I honestly thought we would see the pair rally higher after another bullish candle closed right smack at the 100 SMA. However, it didn’t and USD/CHF soon traded lower, even going below the 200 SMA. Whew! Good thing I didn’t get too excited to pull the trigger!

I think that it’s still a good idea to trade the pair but I have to be patient. I will wait for USD/CHF to either close above .9500 before buying or close below .9350 before selling.

Fundamentally, I’m still pretty bullish for the dollar given the Fed’s intentions of tapering asset purchases later this year. However, I’m also aware that this may already be priced in. This consolidation we’re seeing now could be a signal that the market is waiting for new catalysts.

Perhaps the G20 meetings over the weekend will be enough to spark a breakout or maybe the PMI reports from Europe next week would do the trick, I really don’t know. But rest assured, I will be ready to jump in and trade the pair once we see it trade in a clearer direction.

Have a great weekend!

XOXO,

Huck

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