USD/CHF: Support at the 200 SMA?

Trade Idea: 2013-3-15 02:50

USD/CHF 1-hour Chart

Are you seeing what I’m seeing? It appears that USD/CHF has stalled at the 200 SMA. The 200 SMA has been a major area of contention by the bulls and the bears as it has served as significant support in the past.

What makes the setup even more attractive for me is the formation of the bullish divergence. Price has made a “higher high” but the Stochastic made a “lower low.” This is normally considered by traders as an early signal that price will move higher.

I’m not going to pull the trigger now though. Since price is consolidating, I’m going to wait for an upside break before buying. When price goes to .9485, which is just several pips above the consolidation, I’m going to enter. I’m ultimately aiming for new highs, but I will take profit on half of my position at .9550. As for my stop, I’ve placed it below the most recent swing low at .9420.

I think we would soon see more upside rallies on the pair. After all, the SNB did mention in their rate statement yesterday that they are still pretty intent on keeping their peg on EUR/CHF.

In fact, despite the currency reserves report showing that buying’em euros is getting a tad expensive, the SNB still said that they would enforce the exchange rate with “utmost determination.”

To recap:

Buy stop at .9485. Stop loss at .9420. PT at .9550. PT2 yet to be determined. Risk disclosure.

There ya have it! That’s my trade idea for today. What’s yours?

XOXO,

Huck

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  • Bijoymj

    Joining you in this party. Buy stop makes sense.

    • huck

      Sad that price went the other way. Good thing we did a buy stop instead of a buy at market though. Now, bias seems to be for the downside… I’m looking to sell on a retracement.