USD/CHF: Simple Fibonacci Play

Trade Idea: 2013-4-11 3:19

USD/CHF 1-hour Chart

Oh my! I spy with my pretty little eye a potential Fibonacci play on USD/CHF! It seems that the pair is starting to retrace some of its losses after finding support at the .9300 level. I’m looking to take advantage of this, so I’m thinking of jumping in at .9380.

Technically speaking, the trade makes a lot of sense for me. For one thing, .9380 lines up nicely with both the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and a former broken support. As the School of Pipsology says, whenever price passes through support, that level normally becomes resistance. The 200 SMA is also pointing down, which suggests that the pair’s bias is to the downside.

Once triggered, I’m going to place my stop above the 61.8% Fib, at .9450. I’m hoping for new lows, but I’ll take half my position off at .9300 just to be safe.

Looking at the forex calendar, I see that the U.S. retail sales report is on tap. It may just be the catalyst that I need for my trade.

People tend to spend more when they have secure jobs. With that said, I’m bracing myself for a disappointing figure given that the NFP report for March also came in worse than expected.

If this turns out to be the case, we could see the dollar get sold off on the negative news. But of course, there’s also a chance that the pair would trade according to market sentiment and the dollar could rally on risk aversion.

Gah! I’ll be sure to closely watch USD/CHF and see how it reacts to the report.

So, based on my technical and fundamental views, I’m going to sell USD/CHF. Here’s what I’m going to do:

Limit sell at .9380. Stop loss at .9450. PT1 a .9300. PT2 yet to be determined. I will bet 1% of my account. Risk disclosure.

XOXO,

Huck

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