Trade: Short USD/CHF At Market

We have a lot of reports due this NFP week so I decided it’s probably better to put on shorter-term trades than to commit to a trade bias.

USD/CHF 1-Hour Forex Chart

USD/CHF 1-Hour Forex Chart

This time I’m looking at a possible short on USD/CHF. The pair is right at the 61.8% Fib on the 1-hour chart, which had served as a pretty strong support level last month. Not only that, but the area also coincides with a retest of a falling trend line on the 4-hour chart and is also near where the 100 and 200 SMAs are. Last but not the least, there’s a possible bearish divergence on the chart.

On the fundamentals side I’m looking for a continuation of yesterday’s risk-friendly action. This could further weigh on the dollar and drag USD/CHF down. And then there’s the ADP and ISM non-manufacturing reports due at 1:30 pm GMT and 3:00 pm GMT respectively. Both reports are a bit lower than their readings last month.

For the reasons above I decided to risk 0.50% and short the pair at market (.8873). I placed my stop loss 50 pips away and my profit target around last week’s lows.

What do you think of this setup? Is this something you would take?

XOXO,

Huck

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  • ScorpiusTygma

    I just spotted the same setup this morning and went short on this one just like you.
    It’s a little confidence boost to see that others have the same mind as I do 🙂
    Good luck on this one! 🙂

    • Hucklekiwi Pip

      Yep, it always feels good to have other traders with you on your bias. What are your entry, profit, and stop loss levels? 🙂

  • Brigitta

    Hi Huck,

    Set up looks good.
    Did you enter short on a 1H chart?
    Thanks 😉

    • Hucklekiwi Pip

      Thanks Brigitta!

      Yep, I used the 1-hour chart although I also looked at the higher time frames before I entered. How about you? Do you have trades on USD/CHF? 🙂

      • Brigitta

        Hi Huck,
        Yes, same here. Going short. And ‘BunnyGirl’was right; just bounced off 100SMA on 4H chart!
        Good luck! 😉

        • Hucklekiwi Pip

          Looks like it’s going well so far. Fingers still crossed until it hits PT! 🙂

  • spocktrader

    I wouldn’t do it. In fact, I’m long on this pair.
    Reasons: Swiss National Bank doesn’t allow EUR to fall beyond 1,20. If SNB weakens its currency this will also affect the other CHF pairs.

    • Lancer7d

      Agreed spocktrader!

    • Hucklekiwi Pip

      Thanks for your two cents, spocktrader. I really appreciate it!

      What time frame are you looking at? I’m only using the 1-hour chart so my initial profit target is just around last week’s lows which apparently is still ok with the SNB. Are you seeing bullish signals on the higher time frames? 🙂

      • spocktrader

        I generally look at all time frames. In this case I’ve seen a bullish Gartley pattern on the daily chart – normally a very powerful sign. In this case it’s almost been broken to the downside (depending on where you’d put your SL). EURCHF broke even deeper. Anyway, my reasoning is that many traders expect SNB intervention, so I guess there’s a lot of long positions down there even if SNB won’t intervene. In other cases price moved up dramatically.
        Cheers

  • Bunny Girl

    Hello Huck,

    I also was looking for this setup yesterday and today shorted at market too. The pair is in downtrend and it just bounced of 100 SMA and the falling trendline.
    Thanks so much for your post!
    I think we both will get some nice pips:)), good luck!

    Cheers!

    • Hucklekiwi Pip

      Thanks Bunny Girl! I love your enthusiasm! Where were you able to enter and what time frame are you looking at? 🙂

      • Bunny Girl

        Unfortunately my entry was a little low((. I shorted at 0.8868 at H4, but the price is still ranging and despite to the bad USD news today the pair didn`t fall, so I just closed the position, I don`t want to expose the position overnight, and to avoid risk during the ECB conference tomorrow.
        Wish you good luck!

        • Hucklekiwi Pip

          Thanks! Closing ahead of the ECB decision was a good idea. I guess I just got lucky this time. It seriously could have gone the other way. Are you looking at other setups for the NFP? 🙂

          • Bunny Girl

            Thanks for you reply and greetings for the successful trade!:))
            I avoid trade the news, maybe next week after the NFP releaseI wll be looking for setups.
            See you soon ))

  • htetarker

    sdutying

  • Ken

    Why is it that when it comes to other currency pair, you are so willing to trigger at market where as for longing eur/usd you take “years” to decide???You had a good long trade on eur/usd but panick and decided to close early. You also predicted correctly the pair will be going up but took so very long to decide to buy until you missed the boat!!! Look at where the pair is now!! It is likely to hit 1.39 soon!!!

    • Hucklekiwi Pip

      Hi Ken!

      Yeah it always sucks when I miss a good setup. I closed my previous EURUSD trade because price had broken the rising channel that I was watching on the 1-hour chart. I didn’t enter the longer-term setup I had two weeks ago because I wasn’t too sure about the euro and its reaction to Ukraine’s political crisis.

      I probably should have just entered a small position instead of staying away completely. Something to think about next time! How about you? Did you buy EUR/USD last week? 🙂

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