Trade: Retracement Trade on USD/JPY

Is it time to buy back the Greenback? This USD/JPY setup certainly suggests so!


USD/JPY has just tested (and is now above) the 104.00 major psychological handle. I like this support area not only because it has been an inflection point since December but also because it’s near a 38.2% Fib and a mid-channel support on the 1-hour chart.

Fundamentally I think that the dollar bulls still have weapons in their arsenal. Despite the weak NFP report the Fed is still looking to taper its QE and the BOJ hasn’t veered from their plans to stimulate its economy.

I”ll be taking a chill pill with this setup though. My SMAs aren’t supporting an upward move and there might be a falling trend line since the start of the month. I think I’ll wait for a couple more candlesticks instead of entering at market or setting an order. Got any tips on entry and exit points? Your thoughts would be much appreciated!



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  • adnan

    that’s awesome ..

    thanks for the detail description ..

  • Abbey

    I went short today at 104.300 with a tight stop loss right above the daily pivot and the daily middle bollinger band at 104.50, my limit is set at the lower bollinger band at 1030.50
    I also have an entry order to go long at 1.0340 limit 1.052, tight stop at 1.02960, both plays are daily bollinger bands scalp for 80 pips to the downside and 180 pips to the top if it works,

    • Hucklekiwi Pip

      Heya, Abbey!

      How’s your trade coming along? 🙂

      • Abbey

        Due to MLK holiday in the US, no momentum to complete the trade, the trade was manually closed on Monday at 10:30 AM Eastern @ 103.958 for +34 pips, thanks.

        • Hucklekiwi Pip

          Congrats! I hope you’re also having good luck this week 🙂

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  • alibabababy

    Hello Huck. I see lower lows and lower highs on your chart since the end of December. I do not like the odds on this one yet but I would be tempted to short around 105 if we get close 🙂

    • Hucklekiwi Pip

      It’s finding resistance at the 104.70 zone right now. I’d really love to see this pair higher but it doesn’t look like the bulls are ready for another bullish run. *sigh*

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