Taking a Short EURUSD Walk – Closed Open Orders

Closed Open Orders: 2010-07-13 21:56

PoD Chart

Phew! I was able to avoid a big loss on my account! Thank goodness I was watching the charts and the news when the European session kicked off. Apparently, Portugal got a debt downgrade from Moody’s and this news pushed EURUSD to make a new low. Since my trade entry was based on Fibs, it was already invalidated with the new low so I decided to cancel my orders.

Later on, when news of the successful Greek bond auction hit the airwaves, EURUSD suddenly zoomed up. If my trade orders were still up then, I would’ve gotten triggered and stopped out in less than a couple of hours!

Trade Idea: 2010-07-12 23:44

PoD Chart

Short again? Why yes! I still believe that euro zone has some debt kinks to work out and confidence in the region remains very low. The ZEW economic survey later could show just that, as it is predicted to fall to 25.2 from 28.7.

I also think that we could see a return in risk aversion with all the stress tests for euro zone banks happening. If those tests show pessimistic results, we could see debt fears return and push EURUSD back down to its yearly lows.

I know, I know, US’s economy isn’t doing very well either! But the USD has this unfair advantage of being the “world’s reserve currency” wherein traders rally to during times of uncertainty. In fact, yesterday’s strong dollar move may be a sign that dollar strength is back in vogue like Daisy Dukes in the summertime!

Looking at EURUSD’s 1-hour chart, I noticed that yesterday’s high lines up with this week’s open price. I decided to draw up some Fibs and… TADA! The 50% Fib also coincides with yesterday’s high. Hmm, that area could serve as a strong resistance level so I put a short order there.

Still, I am a little hesitant to hold on to any trade for too long now, as the market have been weird lately. I’m planning to hold on to this as a day trade only, so I set a tight stop of 50 pips, which would be above the 61.8% Fib level. Then I plan to aim for yesterday’s low at 1.2550.

Here’s the plan:

Short EURUSD 1.2640, stop at 1.2690, pt at 1.2550.

After this day trade, I might go watch Predators. Adrien Brody as an alien terminating machine? The Pianist? Are you serious? Hah – this should be interesting.

Anyway, wish me luck on this trade and don’t forget to follow me on MeetPips.com!

  • mastergunner99

    We’re on the same page. I took a short today as well. I’m going for more pips though.

  • CodeStar

    I also got in on this one. A tad earlier on friday at 1.2657 and I aim for 1.2490

  • Dreadart

    And score!

  • Santacruz

    I’m going short too. Let watch the result of the ZEW to confirm the signal.

  • mastergunner99

    We’re on the same page. I took a short today as well. I’m going for more pips though.

  • CodeStar

    I also got in on this one. A tad earlier on friday at 1.2657 and I aim for 1.2490

  • Dreadart

    And score!

  • Santacruz

    I’m going short too. Let watch the result of the ZEW to confirm the signal.

  • wolfpup77

    I really do NOT recommend shorting anything this week; risk appetite is VORACIOUS due to the corporate earnings for the U.S., and that is the main focus for traders around the world, be it commodities, stocks, and futures. For the rest of the week, I predict that EUR/USD may potentially rally up to 1.2800, perhaps up to 1.2900!

  • expatyank

    I kind of agree wolfpup. The 1.2720 resistance has been tried a few times since May, and the long-term downtrend since early Dec 2009 means breaking resistance here also can change the trend and easily shoot up to the 1.30 level. So I’m waiting to see what happens at the 1.27 level before going either direction (along with the FOMC minutes and the vote on financial reform).

  • wolfpup77

    I really do NOT recommend shorting anything this week; risk appetite is VORACIOUS due to the corporate earnings for the U.S., and that is the main focus for traders around the world, be it commodities, stocks, and futures. For the rest of the week, I predict that EUR/USD may potentially rally up to 1.2800, perhaps up to 1.2900!

  • expatyank

    I kind of agree wolfpup. The 1.2720 resistance has been tried a few times since May, and the long-term downtrend since early Dec 2009 means breaking resistance here also can change the trend and easily shoot up to the 1.30 level. So I’m waiting to see what happens at the 1.27 level before going either direction (along with the FOMC minutes and the vote on financial reform).

  • mastergunner99

    The move up stayed clear of my stop loss, so I’m still short. It’s not looking pretty right now. I suspect it’ll stop out while I sleep tonight.

  • mastergunner99

    The move up stayed clear of my stop loss, so I’m still short. It’s not looking pretty right now. I suspect it’ll stop out while I sleep tonight.