Q3 2016 Forex Trade Review and Reflections

Finally, a positive trading quarter! Despite ending Q3 2016 with net positive pips though, I’m still not quite happy with my performance. Here are the deets on my last few trades:

DATE TRADE IDEA P/L in Pips P/L in &
Jul 01 USD/CHF’s Falling Channel Retest -119 -0.22%
Jul 19 EUR/USD’s Range Support at 1.1000 Canceled Canceled
Jul 22 Make or Break for USD/JPY +1,000 +0.94%
Aug 18 USD/CHF’s Symmetrical Triangle Canceled Canceled
Sept 09 Jumping in on GBP/USD’s Uptrend! -150 -0.25%
Sept 22 Cable’s Short-Term Downtrend Canceled Canceled
Sept 30 Will USD/CHF’s Range Support Hold? Canceled Canceled
TOTAL 731 0.47%

No. of Trade Ideas: 7
Trades Triggered: 3
No. of Wins: 1
No. of Losses: 2
No. of Break Even Trades: 0
Win %: 33%
Average Gain Per Winning Trade: 1,000 pips (0.94%)
Average Loss Per Losing Trade: -135 pips (-0.24%)

As I mentioned in my Q2 2016 trade review, I had to work on just taking and winning more trades in order to get momentum on taking setups. Well, it seems like I have to work harder on that endeavor next quarter!

On one hand, I got better at identifying bigger trends and potential inflection points where I can enter trades. My weekly trading prep posts definitely helped, but it also didn’t hurt that the major central bankers’ decisions were not as uncertain and cray as they were in Q2.

Despite that, I’m still behind on my “Just take it!” goal for the quarter. See, ALL of the four trade ideas that I canceled last quarter turned out to be solid setups that, if taken, would’ve yielded serious pips. GBP/USD’s downtrend setup, in particular, would’ve gotten me a short at 1.3100 if I only placed orders around the area of interest that I identified.

Cutting losses would’ve also improved my trading stats. Sure I couldn’t do much when a series of weak U.K. reports immediately took out my Cable trade, but I definitely could’ve cut my losses earlier on my USD/CHF trend trade.

One thing I’m pretty happy about is my USD/JPY trade where I was able to press a winning position. Not only that, but I also stuck to the plan and waited for the pair to hit the 100.00 mark even though there were many times when I REALLY wanted to book profits early.

Going forward, I’ll concentrate on taking more setups. I might not have won more than one trade in Q3, but my execution on my USD/JPY trade as well as my missed setups are enough to get my butt off the safe train and actually take more risks. I suspect we won’t lack catalysts with the Fed possibly raising rates in December, the Brexit plot thickening, and the ECB and BOJ possibly adding more stimulus before the year ends.

Fingers crossed for a strong finish in Q4!

How about you? How was your trading in Q3 2016? Did you make improvements from your Q2 trading? Also, got any tips on how I can cut my losses going forward? Any tip would be much appreciated!

Huck's Signature

P.S.: Remember to never risk more than 1% of a trading account on any single trade and to adjust position sizes accordingly. Create your own ideas and don’t follow what I do. Better yet, read the Risk Disclosure!

See also:
2014 HLHB Trend-Catcher Performance